NL50 overpair turn decision OOP
Posted by All-inDrawingDead
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All-inDrawingDead
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Low Stakes
NL50 overpair turn decision OOP
EP recreational player
CO 19/16/9 agg 34, fold cbet flop 33/ turn 33, raise cbet flop 21, WTSD 33, W$SD 46
Flop size sure bigger,
How do you plan on this turn?
Thanks :)
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I think x/c turn is a solid play. I expect to lose a bunch to 9x and FHs but i'm calling down. There should be enough bluffs in his range imo.
I agree with XC the turn (obv a terrible card for us), but I don't see what we beat OTR, especially with Qh. Even if he decided to turn some stuff into a bluff, he most likely improved otr, and it's not like we don't have any 8x in our range, so I'd muck.
how much 9x u expect CO to haz? i expect none.. mb few 98s 9Ts.. very little combos.. i expect him to be PP heavy.. so i think betting again OTT is better .. once he bet, iz ok to x/c since now he rep even less sets lel..
OTR ez x/f.. even 66 88 beatz uz lul!
Well played if you've folded! ;)
Wow I'm gonna go ahead and slightly disagree with taaaz for the first time in forever. 9 is imho clearly great turn for us, since this villain probably never has 9x in his preflop range and he suddenly has fewer sets in his range.
As a default this line is fine (assuming we folded otr), but I'd at least consider folding the turn. Like ajhh, akhh, kjhh and athh are the only bluffs in villain's range and all of those have equity, whereas we're drawing thin vs his valuerange. He can also occasionally follow through otr, almost certainly not often enough for us to be able to calldown, but even very rare bluff decreases ev of the turn xc. But then again he can have tt/jj.
Its def important to check his preflop coldcall frequencies. Some nits are just ultratight in ep/mp and flat reasonably widpe in late positions, others flat 55+, ajs+, aqo+
y i disagreed with dem 2
I'd be interested if you have stats on how often villain is raising flops, because I sense that this would be a texture he would be raising a set on. Given the fish is left to act may sway him to be calling more though not sure. I think it's played good though. I don't expect villain to have many 9s in his range(utgs stack makes a speculative flat with any 9x even less likely) but I think checking still nets us more money than betting, with enough flush draws he can have as well as protection/vbs with worse 2p 88,TT,JJ. Also this isn't a turn we are going to be multibarreling at any balanced frequency, putting his flush draws in a really easy spot when we 2 barrel. The river is pretty gross. He's got the boats I guess as well as 88, and possibly some of the KJhh type stuff follows through here, but maybe not even often enough for us to call him.
If we want to construct a range of calling with overpairs here, I think we should just call the times we don't have a heart in our hand. It's possible that we should fold more than that but if we feel like villain may be following through a lot here or we have a read or something, I would stick to that.
+11
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