NL50 Nut straight on wet board.

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NL50 Nut straight on wet board.

HJ: $99.50
CO: $50
BN: $89
SB: $53.44
BB: $50.75 (Hero)
UTG: $62.13
Villain is 24/19, WTSD 33, W$SD 50, COuo 26. I have played with villain quite a bit we get into a lot of 3b, 4b battles pre but have never seen him too out of line post flop.
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1
I don't want 3b this hand as he 4bs quite a bit and not sure if it is a profitable shove.
Flop ($3.25) 9 8 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.16, Hero calls $2.16
I call flop hoping to hit a T, J or Q and with the intention of c/r some turns repping the nine.
Turn ($7.57) 9 8 9 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5.04, Hero calls $5.04
I definitely think I should be raising here as there are plenty of draws here. If I did raise here and he shoves do I have to fold?
River ($17.65) 9 8 9 T 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $13, Hero folds
Really wasn't sure when this river hit what to do. I can only really see value hands in his range. I can only see some 7x & Jx that could try bluff here. Anyway what do you guys think? Is it exploitable to fold a hand this good in this spot?
Final Pot
CO wins $16.77

21 Comments

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arizonabay 10 years, 8 months ago

You have a lot of history w/ villain, so if you usually raise your 9x+ on the turn - I think you need to call river. After all villain could just be going off the fact that you know each other so well and he knows you raise monsters on the turn.

If you normally call 9x+ on the turn to x/r the river then I think a fold is ok (might be exploitable but that is only an issue if villain is going to actually exploit you!)

As to raising the turn, I probably do but I don't have a good answer for you as to call or fold if he shoves - the only thing I could say is to assign a reasonable range to what you think he shoves turn with and see if you have the equity to call. Calling or folding all ins can be easy to figure out if time consuming. It becomes simply a matter of math and assumptions - our assumptions need to be accurate though or else the math is useless. What I would do is find a "worst case" scenario and then a "best case" scenario, chances are villain will play somewhere in between and if we have almost the odds to call in the worst case scenario then we probably have a call in real life - if we would need villain to play closer to best case then we probably have a fold in real life. 

Regularblue 10 years, 8 months ago

I think the call on the flop is a bit too wide, when you hit your gin card Tx, you are still going to be apprehensive when getting stacks in due to the board being paired. Your facing a CO range of 26% which overall is going to be much stronger than you are obviously taking into consideration, i.e. your pair outs are often going to get you in trouble and your going to bleed money in dominated situations.

 If this was Vs a 50%+ btn range then this is completely different, and floating the flop with intention to raise turns or stab rivers is actually a good plan. But in this case Vs a much stronger range, i really don't think you can get away with a reverse float Vs any relatively aggressive opponent with a reasonable CO opening range.

*******

As played you should probably just call turn and river. Villain still has some thinnish value bets JJ+, 9x combos. The same hand as yourself, and obviously some random bluffs sith club blockers. There is no way i can see how we can confidently fold the river, without having some mega read ln villains range ad rover betting tendancies.

If you were to raise turn, which wouldn't exactly be a bad idea by any means, i would be far more worried when villain flats my check raise than when he jams it on you, on the turn. As why would he have any incentive to jam turn if he was nutted, this would be pretty diabolical as he would only be folding out your bluffs that would potentially bet the river. Therefore he would only be making good money when its a cooler.


themightyjim 10 years, 8 months ago

If you're raising the stronger portions of your value range before the river I think you need to call.  If you tend to call down in these spots then I don't hate a fold, but it's certainly close against players that will value bet thin on the river (and conversely bluff a lot). 

arizonabay 10 years, 8 months ago

Yeah, thats what I was thinking too, Jim. - its vs a guy he has extensive history with, so I think hero should be able to play well post flop, that being said villain should also be able to play well vs hero. But do you guys fold QJo here pre-flop vs unknowns? IDK, tbh, but I think that is too tight - I like it as a 3b, I like it as a call, about the only option I hate is a fold. Yes it is a 3x, but its not vs UTG or MP - I think it is very close vs a CO but only in the 3b or call category. I am probably calling QTo and JTo (maybe 3betting them, but probably a little of both otherwise I think my ranges get to offsuit weak broadway heavy). Again this is assuming I think I play better than my opponents post flop, vs unknowns I generally assume they are reasonable but I think I can play well enough to play these hands from the BB, as long as I don't take one action all the time. If I always 3b QJo I think my 3b range is going to be kind of weak in the playability department. Does any of this make sense? Or am I just rambling?

themightyjim 10 years, 8 months ago

depends on openers CO range.  I think it's a borderline hand that should be called against most players at these stakes.  I don't like it as a 3bet as it's only value in that scenario is getting preflop folds.  If we would 3bet it (other than flopping the nuts) we'll be in pot control or bluffing mode after the flop just about every time.

If you weren't confident in your postflop ability and your opponent tended to be very aggressive I don't hate a fold pf.  Of course in that case you might be served better by dropping in stakes and working on some things.  I know I've had to do that lots of times.

arizonabay 10 years, 8 months ago

I disagree holopainen, I really feel like most people still over fold their BB vs most positions, the discount we get is pretty significant and broadway hands aren't trash, they make big pairs and big straights. QJ will have some domination issues and if you flop TP and a large amount of money goes in you are likely crushed. 

This is a 25.8% CO range (I think it's fairly reasonable) {AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s} and QJo has 44% equity vs that range. We are getting 2.25:1 (30.7%) meaning we need to realize ~69% of our equity post flop. (At least I am pretty sure that's how this works) and I think we should be able to do that if we play well post flop, its not like 68o or something.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 8 months ago

QJo is a ok flat but not a fist pump since it has so low post flop playability. I would just x/c down as played. Probably fold the flop against some guys that cbet around 50-55%.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 8 months ago

I am a nit. You can continue on QJT and those aren't enough to call against the majority of sizings OTF and also, we can be drawing pretty thin even hitting one of our outs. Without good reads on frequencies for me is not a fist pump call otf.

Chael Sonnen 10 years, 8 months ago

Pre-flop flat is good. You're a nit if you fold this versus a CO open.
Flop call is good, turn call is good, and I'd call the river.

Your Qc blocker is pretty significant here.
Since you called QJ on the flop, I assume your strategy with most 9x is to call the flop as well. Your hand is even better than trips now, and you have a relevant blocker.

You can't just continue here with a full house.
Villian can bet a good 9 with a club for this sizing, as well as the same hand.
Call river.

Rogbey 10 years, 8 months ago

Thanks guys for the input, some good advise there. Is how I under repped my hand which would leave his range much wider with value hands I beat and bluffs. 

I would sometimes 3b this hand but definitely think it is just a call, I would never fold this hand pre as I think this is way too exploitable. 

arizonabay 10 years, 8 months ago

If a particular villain generally plays well post flop in a single raised pot but over folds to 3b's (defends poorly) I think you can 3b this hand. But I agree it is not a good play if it is part of your default and 100% in your 3b range.  

sandmansuitd 10 years, 8 months ago

I like the pre flop flat, and your reasoning behind it. personally i would be x/raising flop this this kind of hand on this flop pretty often becasue it might be a little to weak to flat and we need a x/raise bluffing range to balance our value... but call is defs good too, better then fold i think. i think we need to raise the turn, i think we are just need to get value here from all A9's k9's Q9's, over pairs maybe, and all hands that are double barrelling becasue they picked up clubs. as played im calling river, i think we are very near the top of our get to the river range and might even be beating some thin value bets 

Live_your_dreams85 10 years, 8 months ago

Agree that this makes a good hand to balance our value raises on the flop.

Don't think Its a auto raise on the turn though.I think you can play that way correctly and profitably.

I don't mind x/c,x/c either though just not x/f when we take x/c turn

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