NL50 Late position 5-bet jam vs. regular
Posted by bdon22
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bdon22
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NL50 Late position 5-bet jam vs. regular
Villain is 22/17, F3B 31%, 4BR 5.2%, F4B 100%, 557 hands
Wondering if there are any programs out there that will let me enter a range he calls and a range he folds, then determines if this is +EV ?
But just looking by looking at it, how do you feel about it?
The $9.50 / $4.50 raise looks a bit weak. But my 5-bet jam doesn't have as much dead money to win.
4-bet range of 5.2% is quite wide, and considering villain only folds to 3-bet 31% of the time, that means they must be 4-betting light a ton, right?
If AJo is not good enough to 5-bet bluff here with then what hands are you doing it with?
Villain's CO open is only 18%. I have a clean image vs. him and this is the first time I've really played back.
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Phil calculates it here in this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3htf8FPLMOY
In your case:
You're risking 44.5 (50 - 4.5) to win 14.75 (9.5 + 4.5 + .75 blinds)
If he calls, let's say you have 30% equity, so you lose 0.7 x 44.5 = 31.15
If he folds, you win 14.75.
14.75 / (14.75 + 31.5) = 0.32
1 - 0.32 x 100% = 68%
So you need him to fold over 2/3 of the time.
Since he's only 3-bet 5% over that sample, your jam is most likely not going to be +EV, unless his fold to 5-bet is out of line, which is extremely unlikely because he'd have to have more 4-bet bluffs.
Villians 4-bet is too small. You're getting about 3:1 to play in position with a hand that has decent playability. If you think he's capable of being light, call.
If he's a super nit, then fold.
The bigger his 4-bet, the more you'll win with a jam, so it would need to work less often.
Poker Ranger. It is a Range vs Range analysis tool. It also has an EV Calc. You have to estimate what hands he can fold, bet or call with and see what would be the EV of your move.
Regards
I would simply call preflop with AJo BTNvCO. I would rather play AJo versus his entire CO range than with an undefined 4bet range and guessing at his frequencies - 557 hands is way too small of a sample to have accurate 4bet freq.
Calling is pretty marginal IMO, especially against a CO who doesn't open too much.
You'll get squeezed a lot by the blinds, and both calling and folding are pretty annoying.
I'd take initiave, HU play with position over position in a low SPR pot with a decent chance of getting squeezed and not knowing what to do.
It's not really a bluff but also not a value raise. The reason to 3-bet would mostly be that it's much easier to play the hand post-flop.
If CO 4-bets a ton and the blinds are kind of weak-passive, then it becomes a flat.
chael:i think 3bet here is bad->you push him to make good dicision->4bet or fold (he is OOP and good player almoust never call here if both blinds fold)and you dont wanna go in with AJo,than why waste such a good hand on BTN than you rather 3bet bluff with weak Ax or Kx
@Chael
This is very contradictory.If he doesn`t open too much, then he has a stronger range.By flatting we keep the weaker parts of his range and dominate bigger portion of his Ax combos.
That being said, if he was opening wider and still folding only 30% to 3b, i would defo advocate 3betting him for value here with AT+, 88+.
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