NL50 KQcc in 3bet pot
Posted by Bronson
Posted by
Bronson
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 KQcc in 3bet pot
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
SB: $101.33
BB: $64.52
UTG: $64.87
MP: $52.10 (Hero)
CO: $50.00
BN: $50.00
BB: $64.52
UTG: $64.87
MP: $52.10 (Hero)
CO: $50.00
BN: $50.00
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is MP with
K
Q
, , ,
Flop
($9.25)
2
J
8
, ,
Turn
($19.25)
2
J
8
8
,
River
($19.25)
2
J
8
8
T
would you try a bluff OTR ?
is flop cbet good?
villain is 43/32 (44 hands) hasn't limped yet, but 1tables so prbably fish
Loading 16 Comments...
actually nevermind, i know bluffing river is bad
what about the cbet vs this kinda unknown fish?
River bluff would be terrible, yes.
The T isn't a scarecard for any of his range and it's not like it realistically improves your range either. I would expect most pairs to bluffcatch the river and it's not like he can't be checking stronger than Jx here either. If the river was an offsuit ace it would be a different story, and we could probably make a case for betting. ("Scary" card for his pairs).
Pre-flop is good/standard for value/isolation.
On the flop I might also end up betting in-game with the reasoning that it can't be too bad, and that we have two overcards as backup. But if we look at the spot more closely betting doesn't seem too appealing. This is not a board where he will fold any pair to a CB, our hand doesn't have any good barreling opportunities, and our pair outs aren't nutted (and some tainted by the FD).
If we give our opponent a 30% opening range that mostly calls 3-bets, with 20% fold vs 3-bet (green calls):
I have him 4-betting KK+ which I would expect mostly. And I have him calling AK and QQ, which is of course debatable. Anyhow, on this board, his range distributes as such:
Pair or better | 47.5%%
Draw | 15.2%%
AK, and AQ with hearts | 7.4%
(If we give him a somewhat tighter pre-flop range the numbers come out roughly the same).
So only 29.8% of his range is worse than this, and will probably fold. Us holding KcQc makes the numbers 50%, 15.4% and 6.5% respectively, for 28.1% "folds". Not a huge difference but we block some of his folding hands with this hand.
Our hand has 30.8% equity vs his total range and 25.9% vs the continuing range. So given that we might get 30% folds and still have equity in the pot when he doesn't raises us, betting can be okay. But it still seems close.
If he folds pocket pairs on the flop then we can get around 40% folds, making a better case for betting. But I really don't expect the typical "weaker player" to fold any pair on this kind of non-scary board.
Also, once we bet, we can't barrel much. The offsuit aces should work. The offsuit tens give us a lot of equity but also connects with some of his range. The 9 doesn't seem too appealing to bet. Our pair outs also aren't nutted given that he holds some QJ, KJ, T9, AK, AQ stuff.
So it seems like a spot where we will simply get called a lot on the flop, and then don't have great options on future streets, even being in position. For these reasons I lean towards a check.
Thoughts?
Even if he is running 43/32, it's only 44 hands so we can't be sure his raising and calling ranges are so loose (hands like K8s, 75s...)
But I'm ok with you, I don't think betting has a huge EV here againt a potential fish.
And I don't think betting the river is good, if he called with SD or FD OTF he at least has second pair, and I don't think a fish will fold that.
We can rep some FD we checked on the turn because it's a bad card to barrel but it's not a lot of combos and vilain has flush, straight, Full House or TP a good portion of the time here that he is going to X/C or X/R. I'm just giving up OTR
I agree. We can't draw that conclusion yet. But if he's playing one table and has played 43/32 over 44 hands, not having limped once, it's at least pretty likely that he's the type that's not very positionally aware and usually plays too loosely from early positions. And usually the one-tabling players do call 3-bets very widely, no?
If we instead have him opening 25%, and folding 40% to 3-bets, for this range (green calls):
His range distribution:
Pair or better | 50.6%
Draw | 10.7%
AK, and AQ with hearts | 11.8%
Which comes out to 27% hands worse than this. So it's still a board where we won't get many folds. And only if he folds pocket pairs to the CB will we get nearly enough for the sizing.
I think a very important point is just that our hand doesn't play well at all on future streets. As said, we have very few good barreling cards. And our pair outs aren't nutted. If the board was 9 5 2 rainbow or something similar, at least we have a clear two street value bet whenever we hit our pairs. But here two of our outs also bring the flush, the Q out also brings in the straight. The Q and K also connect with his KJ, QJ hands making him two pair when we hit our pair. So it's not looking too hot.
FriendlyCritter, your analysis looks good and it's probably best to check back this versus unknown fish.Though I'm not sure that most fish will call 33-66 on this board.
Yes, probably good to cbet on 952r, though we're gonna get called by more Ahighs (AT, Ax with wheel draw). I would probably cbet J82r too, because we get more folds OTF and can vbet on all K turns and maybe even Q turns.
I'm probably giving up on this flop. It's a really bad board for our hand.
And yeah a river bluff would be terrible :)
Give up on the flop for sure.
I'd also give up otf. I can't see a reason to bet, really. We're not likely to fold out better hands and we have terrible equity.
3 betting KQs is a waste.
I don't like 3-betting KQs vs UTG from MP...I'd rather have a much more polarized range for doing this. I would flat KQs IP, it has decent equity against villain's range and a very good playability post flop even if BB comes along. 3-betting this hand seems to me like we are isolating ourselves against a strong range that will often dominate us. Even against a loose range from a fish I think it plays better as a flat
If CO and BTN are somewhat in line preflop, it's like 3betting BTNvsCO pretty much, and i guess you would do that, right ?
I donno, i think i still like my preflop play here
Villain is fish. I want to get it HU with him. He will call a lot of dominated hands (QJ, QT, KJ,KT), that's why i don't make it 3x so it seems cheaper for him to call these hands .
I would prefer to be in CO/BTN but I'm ok with 3betting pre if vilain is an aggro fish. You can even make it 3.75/4, the goal is not to win the pot preflop but to play in position against a weaker player with a range we dominate.
3betting ip to iso a weaker player is better then flatting regardless of the position.
Just use the same sizing with your whole range because regs will pick up on it.
Yeah, the preflop decision seems pretty hard for me too...
I think, it really depends on the players after you:
- you can flat if they are tight and/or passsive
- you can 3bet it fhey are decent players.
Basically I flat a lot IP, because it is more profitable than 3bet in my HM2 filters. But for example Ishter11 3bet a lot especially in position.
Postflop play is more player dependent.
Without any read I cbet this board because of backdoor str8 and overcards. /and not continue this board/
Be the first to add a comment