NL50 JJ in 3B pot not sure what to do on turn 3754r
Posted by bdon22
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bdon22
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NL50 JJ in 3B pot not sure what to do on turn 3754r
Villain is 18/15 over a small 34 hand sample.
I'm not sure he's calling me with 88-TT if I jam this turn and he has a lot of sets and 66 in his range here so can I just check/fold this? I think he might stab at it with a hand like AQhh though. Not sure what to do.
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lets go back one street first, i want to know how often you cbet bluffing here? lets give your 3bet squeeze range 4 segments: 2 part value range, the overpairs and overcards AND the bluffs that whiffed and the bluffs that connected.
Villain's 3bet calling range is mostly linear and MAY have missed this board completely ie. he linear call 3bet range may not be wide enough to connect on this board. eg he can have some AQ AJs ATs KQs and JJ-88, or it begin to widen to include T9s 87s 54s etc and all pairs JJ or lower (QQ+ should be part of his 4bet value range).
We would love to know: how wide does CO defend? how often he stabs at the pot when checked to? how often and with what hands might he float the flop with?
Since he seems tighter i would infer the former 3bet defend range, and i might like a turn check, but not thinking we beat often but to earn another bet and let him bluff at the pot.
If he calls every single TT-88 its an easy shove, but I dont think thats the case. It sucks if we check tho we have to worry he shoves some of those. How often do you think an unkownish reg is going to bet TT-88 here on the turn if checked to?
I feel like there is more chance of checking and either picking up a bluff or have villain value bet worse, then Hero betting himself and hoping villain stacks off with exactly TT-88. We can run sims for different villain ranges but we will still not know for sure what villain actually does in this spot with more info on villain.
he shouldnt really have any bluffs tho, given he called flop with a player to act hes not likely to have hands like AQcc and stuff, so his bets should for the most part be his sets/straights for value and his TT-88 for protection. Or do you think because the other villian was short, it doesnt remove those hands?
If I am villain here I also have QQ+ in my flatting range since I have SB fish and I want to keep him in. In this spot I don't see Villain having bluffs.
That said, OTT I am checking for him to vBet worse and I am calling to a smaller sizing and c/f riv, and c/f turn if he bets bigger.
When u barrel turn, your line looks too strong, given preflop sqz, flop cBet 3way with fish in pot on low connected board --> no weaker hands call. Ugly spot for JJ
That said, OTT I am checking for him to vBet worse and I am calling to a smaller sizing and c/f riv, and c/f turn if he bets bigger.
What is he value betting worse?! I think all over pairs should be checking back trying to get to showdown...
Check/Puke or Bet/Puke
I think I prefer check/puke and hope for the chance it gets checked down and I win vs. 88-TT or draw a 5-straight to chop with a set.
I'm not really sure what's the best line, but I think Hero played this hand fine 3-betting and c-betting for value OTF.
Once there is a 4-straight completes OTT, I think the best line will depend on whether Villain is capable of calling down with worse, bluffing, or value betting worse. If Villain will call down with worse, we should bet. However, if Villain will value bet worse/bluff, we should check/call. If both these scenarios are not true, we should check our hand down and fold to any bet. Thoughts?
Hard to know against someone who you only have 34 hand sample on with no previous history... but I agree with your logic.
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