NL50 - J8 vs weird line
Posted by aamadeo
Posted by
aamadeo
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 - J8 vs weird line
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $50.25
SB: $61.70 (Hero)
BB: $88.20
UTG: $60.44
MP: $49.82
CO: $67.07
SB: $61.70 (Hero)
BB: $88.20
UTG: $60.44
MP: $49.82
CO: $67.07
3.4k h 21/15 wwsf 42 w$sd 35 likely very agro postflop
Fold steal vs SB 57% 3bet 5%
Fold steal vs SB 57% 3bet 5%
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is SB with
J
8
, ,
Flop
($3.00)
Q
3
8
,
Turn
($3.00)
Q
3
8
J
, ,
Well I'm not folding this never. But I may be loosing some times, but since I block QJ nice bluffcatcher,
he could be trying to bluff with Tx, so the best Tx I think are ATo (double gshot) + T8s.
His value range must be J8, some freq of QJ, some freq of T9o that check-behind
he could be trying to bluff with Tx, so the best Tx I think are ATo (double gshot) + T8s.
His value range must be J8, some freq of QJ, some freq of T9o that check-behind
River
($13.50)
Q
3
8
J
Q
, ,
His QJ are now even fewer, I have a nice bluffcatcher I think. And my range here must be weak QXs{Q9s-Q2s}, AJ, J8, T8, ATo, and against his bet I have to defend my top 60% range so looks like J8s didn't make the cut :)
what do you guys think ??
what do you guys think ??
Final Pot
BB
wins and shows a full house, Queens full of Jacks.
BB wins $30.08
Rake is $1.42
BB wins $30.08
Rake is $1.42
Loading 9 Comments...
I would fold river, he has a boat ;D
No really , your hand is counterfeited on river, I think you should give up. ;D
I think we can fold. Our 8 blocker is worthless our only blocker worth anything is the J. And honestly if we are going to call some Jx here we could probably look at like J9 or J10 since they block the straight. It's still iffy bc blocking the straight is good but his bluffs will likely contain a 9 or 10 themselves for a gutter so we end up blocking bluffs too. I dunno. Could maybe just call all Qx+ which we will also have and leave it at that. It's enough hands for sure and the Q is the ultimate card for us to have.
I would bet bigger OTT.
River is a sad fold, unfortunately. :(
This dude looks like a typical weaktight reg, so I doubt he's gonna bluff enough of the time to call this R (and it's not a good card for him to be bluffing either)
And I don't know if he bluffs river with ATo or not, but he has in his range available as a bluff candidate if he does or not it doesn't really matter, so I assume he bets balanced.
The past weekend I've been doing the math (and was about to start writing on the wall and windows) and now I'm trying to defend always the exact freq :)
J9 JT I don't have in this spot, I probably always betting flop with the gshots.
My range OTR is those weak QXs, and I think I should defend a little wider to make his bluffs EV=0, AJ is a good hand but it blocks the ATo, J8 doesn't block bluffs, T8s maybe but there are only 3 combos and I block 1, ATo are 12 and with AJ I block more.
I need to defend 60% of my range there otherwise I'm folding too much. (I've done the math now)
"I need to defend 60% of my range there otherwise I'm folding too much. "
Seems like you figured it out. Just something to think about to finish the thread. It is very easy to fall into this trap of I need to call/fold x% of my range or else I'm calling/folding too much. This only applies if villain is playing gto or close to it. If villain is severely underbluffing a certain scenario, us needing to call 50% of our range is irrelevant. We could call almost never without the nuts in certain spots and be correct in doing so. With that said, it is good practice and will inevitably make us more proficient players to know what we should or shouldn't call to be unexploitable, but we don't have to be a slave to those numbers in practice.
Actually what i found out was that if we do defend the % freq or close to it, if he never bluffes or he bets balanced he wins the same BUT if he does anything different he wins less.
What we really need to be careful is being sure that we have the eq necessary against his entire range (before betting) to make the call.
For example let's say a K hits the river, so many of his bluffs are now value, and against his range we only beat 25% so, we should only bluffcatch hands 1/3 pot bets, anything bigger would be -EV
klamsauce, would you say that it makes sense to have those 'GTO' frequencies in mind and then tweak our actual frequencies based on reads / stats we have to suggest villain's range is weighted more towards bluff / values than a 'GTO player' would be?
The thing is that readless we can't really assume anything about villain. I mean yeah we can take a population read that generally regs aren't bluffing rivers all that often - would you say that that's a fair assumption to make here? Meaning we should tweak our frequency to call somewhat less than the GTO frequency would suggest?
"klamsauce, would you say that it makes sense to have those 'GTO' frequencies in mind and then tweak our actual frequencies based on reads / stats we have to suggest villain's range is weighted more towards bluff / values than a 'GTO player' would be?"
Pretty much this. Like developing a solid base to make sound decisions and deviating from it to match our opponents tendencies that we have accumulated over time. Readless then yeah correct frequencies would serve us best until we have reason to deviate from them.
As far as this actual hand in question I don't know. There is just a lot of talk in this thread about what hands we are "supposed" to call with here on the river so I decided to add in my thoughts. It's just something good to always be thinking about in my opinion.
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