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NL50 can I fold set otr???

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL50 can I fold set otr???

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $79.59
SB: $66.84
BB: $106.38
UTG: $54.16
MP: $59.53
CO: $53.41 (Hero)
Villain is 31/23 over 14 hands, unknown
bb is 31/15 over 100 hands
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is CO with 9 9
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1.00
Flop ($4.75) T K 9
BB checks, MP bets $2.36, Hero calls $2.36, BB calls $2.36
Turn ($11.83) T K 9 A
BB checks, MP bets $5.87, Hero calls $5.87, BB folds
River ($23.57) T K 9 A 4
MP bets $11.70, Hero calls $11.70

I tanked for a long time.
I need ~25%, so I need to be good once in 4 times.

16 combos of QJ, 9 combos of KK, TT, AA, KJss, KQss, K8ss vs 9 combos of AK=> 28:9..9/37=0.243..I'm good ~24.3%, making this breakeven call.

He is fairly clearly valuebetting.
Now, two assumptions clash:
1) I think that our ranges are so strong that he isnt likely to bet AK anymore
2) His sizing, especially ott, is not really consistent with QJ and I dont expect him to be balanced, thus I should remove some QJ from his range, making this a call otr

Which one is it?

Also, do you guys consider raising flop? I cant find any reason to do so, but I might be missing something? We obviously wanna raise all QJ, but Im not sure its worth it to balance by widening valueraising range and occasional bluffraise otf with like AQss or AhQx should be enough, no?

thanks

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