NL50 - BU vs CO 4bet pot
Posted by keysoft
Posted by
keysoft
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 - BU vs CO 4bet pot
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BB: $20.50
UTG: $55.75
MP: $82.69
CO: $63.19
BN: $59.93 (Hero)
SB: $99.70
UTG: $55.75
MP: $82.69
CO: $63.19
BN: $59.93 (Hero)
SB: $99.70
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BN with
J
J
, , , , ,
Flop
($21.75)
9
2
6
,
Turn
($42.75)
9
2
6
7
Hello,
The villain is a 30/24 with 33% unoppened PFR CO, 8% raise 3bet in CO and 38% fold to 5bet in all positions.
Is a good fold in turn? I think I only win AhKh.
Thanks
Regards
Loading 8 Comments...
I 3-bet because he has a 3-bet fold of 52% in CO and only raise 3-bet 9%, definitely he continue with a worst range that JJ.
You would need some very specific assumptions/reads for your line to make sense if you fold here. Im not saying that you should call, I'm saying that somewhere along the way you made a decision that is inconsistent with your decision to fold the turn(unless you have a read that he is 4betting/cbetting light and always giving up ott)
I personally dislike the preflop 3bet as a default.
We should definitely 3-bet vs 33% open. We have a top 3% hand, no?
5-betting is definitely profitable given that he has some 4-bet/folds in him. So you can't go wrong with that. I would only call if you deem it to be more profitable than 5-betting. Or if I thought he was 4-bet bluffing too little (still calling!).
At first I thought the turn is an easy call, but after some stoves it seems a bit closer.
If we assume that he plays QQ+ like this at 100% frequency. (Which isn't necessarily the case, I can certainly see some overpairs going for the turn XR here, but maybe they bet more often than not on such a wet board).
Then he needs around 11 combos of bluffs for us to have a break even call, depending on what those bluffs are. I could see low AXs with flush draws doing this, as well as ATo, KTo. (All good 4-bet bluffing hands). (Other hands could be A8s, K8s, Q8s).
Now, would it make sense for him to play this way post-flop with KTo, ATo? If you peel the flop with AQ and then fold the turn, then yes. If you peel the flop with JJ and then fold as well, most definitely yes. (In that case you basically always fold the turn and he can shove anything).
Example range where we have a call:
Hand 0: 32.759% 32.76% 00.00% 418 0.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 67.241% 67.24% 00.00% 858 0.00 { QQ+, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, KhTs }
The problem is, we can expect QQ+ to play like this very often, close to always. But we definitely can't expect all those bluffs to play like this equally as often, although with some frequency they probably do. So maybe we can find a fold, not sure. In-game I call.
Thanks for answering.
Why 5-bet is definitely profitable? I assume he only call 5-bet AI with {JJ+, AK} and vs JJ I only have 36.59% equity and I need 37.97% equity minimum for 38% fold to 5-bet.
I think this player have only value or flush draws in his cbet range, he has cbet 44% in flop and 43% in turn single raised pots, and he only fold vs raise 27% in flop and 39% in turn (but the sample for turn is little).
He too has a 43% WWSF.
Thanks.
I didn't do the calculations but assumed it would be profitable given that he folds to 5-bets at a reasonable frequency. Although I shouldn't say that before making sure!
Assume his value range is JJ+,AK.
JJ has 36.59%.
When called, pot is 120.61 - 1.5 rake = 119.11.
119.11 * 0.3659 = 43.58
Compare that to our current stack of 55.43 (59.93 - 4.5) and we lose on average 55.43 - 43.58 = 11.85 when called.
Currently there is 17.25 in the pot (1.5 + 4.5 + 10.5 + 0.75)
x = fold %
17.25x - (1-x)11.85 = 0
17.25x = 11.85 - 11.85x
29.1x = 11.85
x = 0.407
So we need about 41% folds. My assumption was thus incorrect for this stack size, but at 100bb it should be about right.
Then again, we can't be sure that 38% is his exact number for this spot vs you at this stack depth, but we have to start somewhere. Given this, I prefer calling the 4-bet. It should be more profitable to play it post-flop in position than have an around break even shove.
(You say he has 43% WWSF and that makes me more inclined to fold the turn, such a player seems less likely to hold bluffs often enough. Good fold probably).
Well done, Mr. Critter - the calculation look correct to me, but one thing to keep in mind that Villain's F5B COvBU =/= F5B overall.
I believe it's a good approach - the one you took - to figure out how much we net on avg vs Villain's value range and, if needed, how much we need to win the times he folds to make up for it, but we can't rely too much on a sample that's just an average of different possible scenarios.
Here's what I mean - his 38% F5B = 19/50, so he might have folded
3/10 EPvCO,
3/10 @ MPvSB ,
5/10 @ BvB,
6/10 @ COvBU,
2/10 MPvEP.
As we see, the avg F5B = 38% but the avg @ wide range spots is 55%. I'm not saying that's the case, just something to be aware of when making these sort of calculations.
That said, I would just jam pre with a hand as vulnerable as JJ - even his bluffs usually have ~30% equity, so if we make him fold that - good for us.
So, unless you have a pretty decent idea on how he plays postflop, I think that jamming is less tricky.
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