NL50 Bottom set vs a nit/passive reg
Posted by Limp Limpson
Posted by
Limp Limpson
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 Bottom set vs a nit/passive reg
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $53.36
SB: $51.58 (Hero)
BB: $52.78
UTG: $46.12
MP: $73.54
CO: $50.25
SB: $51.58 (Hero)
BB: $52.78
UTG: $46.12
MP: $73.54
CO: $50.25
villain is 23/17 over 2k hands. Cbet F in non3bp 43%, WTSD 39%(!), doesnt fold to xR or donkbets much..overall just doesnt fold much. AF F/T/R 2/1/1. Raise T cbet 1/10, raise F donkbet 2/10, raise F cbet (not sure if relevant) 11/61, fold to donk flop 4/10. Note that he likes to bluffcatch in bad spots.
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is SB with
2
2
, , , , ,
Flop
($4.00)
A
2
6
, , ,
Decided to lead, since OR doesnt cbet too much, xR looks strong even vs stations and I think this is a decent spot to lead hands like 45ss/hh/cc etc.
Turn
($9.50)
A
2
6
6
, ,
Is this a fold? This is not a villain who is likely to bluff I think.
otr we have 30.83$ behind into a pot of 43.5$. Assuming brick rivers, do we xF? donkjam? xC?
thanks guys
Loading 4 Comments...
It's a pretty weird raise from MP. I don't really know what to make of it. I'd call and check call river though i could be convinced that donk shoving river is better as it's possible villain is raising AK and planning on checking back river but might call a donk shove.
If he thinks his hand enough to raise for value on the turn, he probably thinks its good enough to valuebet the river unless it brings a club . Therefore I would either jam the turn or check/call the river, leaning towards jamming the turn. I agree that its rarely a bluff and therefore don't see the need to give him a chance to fire again with his air, and you beat enough of his raise/calling range here. AA are unlikely to flat pre, 66 is one combo, 2 is highly unlikely in his range. A6s is pretty much the only combo that beats you, so just give him 67s and you're ahead.
I really don't see one hand that villain should be raising here with 100bbs ip. If he has what he's repping he has the board on total lockdown. I think we should just shove though. If he has a 6 he isn't folding. If he's making a funky raise w AK he may/may not fold but either way he isn't betting river so we at least give ourselves a chance to get the rest. Finally if he's spaz bluffing here I also don't think he will follow through so calling to check the river doesn't make us anything more.
As far as folding the turn goes, absolutely not.
Still enough trip sixes here to never make this a turn fold. Also 66 in his hand is only 1 combo. I would x/call most rivers.
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