NL50 Bottom set vs a nit/passive reg

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NL50 Bottom set vs a nit/passive reg

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $53.36
SB: $51.58 (Hero)
BB: $52.78
UTG: $46.12
MP: $73.54
CO: $50.25
villain is 23/17 over 2k hands. Cbet F in non3bp 43%, WTSD 39%(!), doesnt fold to xR or donkbets much..overall just doesnt fold much. AF F/T/R 2/1/1. Raise T cbet 1/10, raise F donkbet 2/10, raise F cbet (not sure if relevant) 11/61, fold to donk flop 4/10. Note that he likes to bluffcatch in bad spots.
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is SB with 2 2
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.00, CO folds, BN calls $1.00, Hero calls $0.75, BB calls $0.50
Flop ($4.00) A 2 6
Hero bets $2.75, BB folds, MP calls $2.75, BN folds
Decided to lead, since OR doesnt cbet too much, xR looks strong even vs stations and I think this is a decent spot to lead hands like 45ss/hh/cc etc.
Turn ($9.50) A 2 6 6
Hero bets $7.00, MP raises to $17.00, Hero calls $10.00
Is this a fold? This is not a villain who is likely to bluff I think.

otr we have 30.83$ behind into a pot of 43.5$. Assuming brick rivers, do we xF? donkjam? xC?

thanks guys

4 Comments

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doncamatic 9 years, 11 months ago

It's a pretty weird raise from MP. I don't really know what to make of it. I'd call and check call river though i could be convinced that donk shoving river is better as it's possible villain is raising AK and planning on checking back river but might call a donk shove.

GanjaFarmer 9 years, 11 months ago

If he thinks his hand enough to raise for value on the turn, he probably thinks its good enough to valuebet the river unless it brings a club . Therefore I would either jam the turn or check/call the river, leaning towards jamming the turn. I agree that its rarely a bluff and therefore don't see the need to give him a chance to fire again with his air, and you beat enough of his raise/calling range here. AA are unlikely to flat pre, 66 is one combo, 2 is highly unlikely in his range. A6s is pretty much the only combo that beats you, so just give him 67s and you're ahead.

klamsauce 9 years, 11 months ago

I really don't see one hand that villain should be raising here with 100bbs ip. If he has what he's repping he has the board on total lockdown. I think we should just shove though. If he has a 6 he isn't folding. If he's making a funky raise w AK he may/may not fold but either way he isn't betting river so we at least give ourselves a chance to get the rest. Finally if he's spaz bluffing here I also don't think he will follow through so calling to check the river doesn't make us anything more.

As far as folding the turn goes, absolutely not.

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