NL50 bluffcatcher vs river overbet
Posted by All-inDrawingDead
Posted by
All-inDrawingDead
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 bluffcatcher vs river overbet
19/16 agg 35
Cb flop 55 WTSD 31/ W$SD 44
Can we fold??? The problem is that I think he knows I like a lot bluffcatching generally :(
Thanks :D
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a nit overbets into you, you have a bluffcatcher, I'd fold, if he actually bluffs here, more power to him.
I think its best to not level vs nits at all. He is a nit+he is putting a lot of bbs in the pot=>we should fold
His line doesn't make sense to me, i call.
He probably assumed that almost never have Qx+, so he wants us hero with hands like ours. (JJ-TT/9x/7x*)
I would just shy away from bluffcatching vs nits.
He's tight and he overbets. Easy fold here. This is QQ or 44 almost always.
You don't think he can play like this also KK/AA/AQ?
I don't think he uses this sizing with AA or KK even though it could definitely be. I don't think he bets this big with AQ. One advantage of AA and KK is that he beats 2pair which he doesn't with AQ.
snap-call on this run out. If hes a nit, he never takes this sizing for value.
its just not a good idea to think like this vs nits. Discounting valuehands just because the line does not make sense for value is a very, very expensive mistake.
Whenever a nit puts a lot of money in, we look for hands that beat us in absolute sense (ie hands that are possible, we dont look for hands that he should have). If we find enough hands that beat us, we should fold.
The same principle applies with a lagtard, but in reverse. If he constantly bluffs postflop, we look for hands that we beat.
Basically this is micros, nobody is balanced and underlying villain's tendency trumps almost everything else, especially in nonstd spots
WWSF?
He can definitely bet this size for value with KQ or better. It's not unreasonable for him to check back KQ or similar hands on the flop. 44 (and perhaps As4s) also makes sense. I'd take a look at his XB/F and XB/R stats to see how often he checks back reasonable hands that can call or raise leads.
For bluffs he'd need a pretty random hand. There are a few conceivable hands that he could be doing it with, but they are mainly ace high. (Unless he regularly checks back draws on coordinated boards as the PFR). AK seems like a hand he should take showdown with, rather than start bluffing the turn. The low AXs that missed flop make sense, and maybe AJ. But for a player to take this line with such a hand, it has to be a "try to win all pots" type of player (high WWSF). (Unless he is really just randomly spazzing out).
So it's hard to say. It also ties in with how you play. If you regularly stab turns a lot then it's more likely that he will check back a decent top pair hand, that could take this line.
An additional point is: why did you check the turn? If you don't feel comfortable value betting twice with JJ here after he checks back, that implies that you expect him to have plenty of top pairs in his check back range. In which case he has plenty of value hands for this line. In which case you should probably fold. (Or it's because you expect him to have pure air almost always, that you won't get value from with JJ, in which case he has very few value hands that can take this line. In which case we should be more inclined to call).
When in doubt, folding can't be too bad.
Hm, A 19/16 doesn't seem to be the ideal player to bluffcatch an overbet on the river, also I actually don't see too many people overbet bluffing this spots in micro stakes and that river changes almost nothing but you are certainly having more 4x than him, but by the other side I hate folding here because we are at the top of our range so I wouldn't mind clicking like a whale and taking notes on his river overbet, but what I tend to think in this kind of spots is that regs won't often bluff the river knowing we are having sd value, but as Im unsure if villain will double barrel some of his turn bluffs Im calling this JJ
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