NL50 AJs river overbet?

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL50 AJs river overbet?

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) MP: gmiko: $71.97
CO: Trumper69: $40.49
BN: babystuy: $83.20
SB: Grant[NY]: $52.42
BB: zipper2468: $82.37 (Hero)
UTG: Ryttz: $71.17
Preflop ($0.75) zipper2468 is BB with J A
Ryttz folds, gmiko raises to $1.50, Trumper69 folds, babystuy calls $1.50, Grant[NY] folds, zipper2468 calls $1.00
Flop ($4.75) 3 T 7
zipper2468 checks, gmiko checks, babystuy checks
Turn ($4.75) 3 T 7 K
zipper2468 bets $3.00, gmiko folds, babystuy calls $3.00
River ($10.75) 3 T 7 K 8
zipper2468 bets $8.50, babystuy calls $8.50

Open-raiser and BU seem like fairly standard regs, no reads on BU so far. 350 hands, only maaybe reliable stat is WTSD 25%.
SB and me are also fairly standard regs, we're not nitty but not so squeeze happy to make flatting KK+ on BU here a good idea.

I think his range for calling the turn is most likely something like 50% AK, KQ, KJs and TT. My value range can have any 33, 77, KTs, K7s, K8s, T8s, T7s, 78s, 9Js.
I also have a various OESDs, gutshots and sth like 76s, A7s that miss on river, not many though.

I think this is a very good spot for an overbet but I have no idea how large it should be. Since I don't have many missed draws probably not too big?

Thoughts?

1 Comment

Loading 1 Comments...

Limp Limpson 9 years, 5 months ago

if you think that villain has TT combos in his range, overbetting isnt that attractive, esp since you can prob force him to fold AK combos with ~PSB sizing

even disregarding tt from his range...I'd guess that we have so many valuecombos and so few bluffs that it makes sense to bet smaller and just extract value from his Kx combos.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy