NL50 99 vs fish (SP on river)

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NL50 99 vs fish (SP on river)

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $30.07
SB: $60.06
BB: $43.99
UTG: $102.59 (Hero)
MP: $52.25
CO: $50.75
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is UTG with 9 9
Hero raises to $1.75, 4 folds, BB calls $1.25
Flop ($3.75) 4 8 3
BB checks, Hero bets $2.68, BB calls $2.68
Turn ($9.11) 4 8 3 A
BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB calls $3.75
River ($16.61) 4 8 3 A 6
BB bets $7.93

villain is fish 40/1 (70 hands), agg% f/t/r: 4/10/54

do we call river?

4 Comments

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SPrince 10 years, 2 months ago

A lot of his flop continuing range is gonna be AXc,A2,A4,AcXx so he's rarely bluffing with this line.
Not in love with the turn bet/sizing as well.

Bronson 10 years, 2 months ago

why not ? feel like there is more value?
or would you bet at all? i would definitely bet a bigger sizing on K or Q

i used that sizing to be sure i get calls wider (55-77, any 8 46-K4, flushdraws of course would call more) and as a kind of block bet (wouldn't want to face a river bet from him). do think this is flawed logic?

SPrince 10 years, 2 months ago

Lets look at his flop continuing range.

If we give him all of the clubs combos were ahead of + 22,55 that hes calling the turn with :

55, 22, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, Tc7c, 8c7c, Kc6c, Qc6c, Jc6c, Tc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Kc5c, Qc5c, Jc5c, Tc5c, 8c5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Kc2c, Qc2c, Jc2c, Tc2c, 8c2c, 7c2c, 6c2c
- it`s still only 47 combos total.

His AcXc,AcXx, A2-A5, 2p`s, sets and straights :

8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, 3d3h, 3d3s, 3h3s, 52s, AdKd, AsKs, AcKc, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, AdJd, AsJs, AcJc, AdTd, AsTs, AcTc, As9s, Ad8d, Ac8c, Ad7d, As7s, Ac7c, Ad6d, As6s, Ac6c, Ad5d, As5s, Ac5c, Ad4d, As4s, 8d4d, 8h4h, Ad3d, As3s, 4d3d, 4h3h, 4s3s, Ad2d, As2s, Ac2c, AdKc, AsKc, AdQc, AsQc, AdJc, AsJc, AdTc, AsTc, Ad8c, As8c, Ad7c, As7c, Ad6c, As6c, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad5c, As5d, As5h, As5c, Ac5d, Ac5h, Ac5s, Ad4h, Ad4s, As4d, As4h, Ac4d, Ac4h, Ac4s, Ad3h, Ad3s, As3d, As3h, Ac3d, Ac3h, Ac3s, Ad2h, Ad2s, Ad2c, As2d, As2h, As2c, Ac2d, Ac2h, Ac2s

So theres 2 x more combos beating you, therefore 99 is more of sdv/bluffcatcher. That aside, the sizing you used is susceptible to bluff x/r, as he might float flop with any two broadways or w/e and decide to x/r when you bet so small. You should use that explo sizing vs fish mostly on the river, as a blocking bet and when youre targeting a weak range, but theres small to no chance youre getting check raised.

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