NL50 6m, facing strong line from reg.

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NL50 6m, facing strong line from reg.

CO: $50.75
BN: $87.60 (Hero)
SB: $50
BB: $74.50
Preflop ($0.75) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt K Q
CO folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop ($3.50) K T T (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $6.50, Hero calls $4.50
Turn ($16.50) 8 (2 Players)
SB bets $19
guy is 23/19/2.3 AF. raise flop 16%. (after this hand). SB vs steal - fold 77%, call 6%, 3bet 17%. Nothing more, just seems decent.
How to look at this overbet?

4 Comments

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WM2K 12 years ago
I was going to say this is a pretty clear fold but it could be close. AxTx,KxTx,QxTx,JxTx,Tx9x,AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h-Ah4h I gave him an assortment of reasonable Tx hands and 8 NFD hands and we have 37-38%. I would still fold though as I think its somewhat optimistic to think that half his range is draws and this is to b/eish.
efas 12 years ago
How would you perceive this hand with different bet sizes from him?
1) 10-12 on turn.
2) overbet shove.

Does this small overbet can give us any clue about his range?
James Hudson 12 years ago
I think if he/she bets 10-12 on the turn you have to call because you're getting a better price and you're still fairly high up in your range. If villain were to overbet jam this turn I'd just find a fold and call it off with any 10x hand. Obviously when he bets that big we don't need to worry about being bluffed as much because A) he has to find a bluff with that sizing (prob going to have to be a strong combo draw) B) we don't need to call as often when he uses huge sizing to stop him from bluffing profitably so our calling range can get stronger. Given his actual sizing in this hand I think you can go either way but I'm leaning slightly towards a fold. I think if he is bluffing with this sizing it's going to be a strong combo draw like AJhh but there's really not that many combos of hands like that in villain's flatting range pre.
wuwei 12 years ago
I agree with WM2K. Often I just doubt that overbets are balanced to a degree where we can bluff catch comfortably, but here I would also expect villain to show up with a decent amount of FDs. However, we have way more quads, full houses and Tx in our range than villain. So, I really don't think we have to defend this Hand. Also, there are many rivers that suck for our hand and villains range will probably get stronger on the river (compared to our pair).

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