NL50 3bp top set river decision

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NL50 3bp top set river decision

2k hands : BN 54, fold 3b 75, agg 38, WTSD 18, W$SD 44

Odds : 2.54:1 - 28%

Thanks :)

5 Comments

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Limp Limpson 9 years, 9 months ago

this is one of those spots where others might (possibly correctly) disagree but Im not folding.

I also think that this is kind of board that we want to check a lot and I'd xC otf, esp with Ac. I just think that we have a lot of Ax/Kx combos that really like to xC (cant really cbet any naked Ax imo) and our combo is a decent candidate to balance that range.

Plus we have a fairly wide range that clearly wants to cbet for value and not that many bluffs, since presumably we're not cbetting air here, which also points towards AA being the clear xC.

Actually, given that we will bluff this flop so rarely (possibly only low club SCs?) and we have AJ, AK and JJ in our range, I think that even KK might be better served as a xC.

taaazz 9 years, 9 months ago

OTF, bet is fine, so is XC to strengthen our range.

As played, I'm not folding - he might be turning some stuff into a bluff or vbetting worse, and we block the nFD. His W$SD is also yet another reason to call imo.

LuckyMer 9 years, 9 months ago

On the BTN with my range I will have OTR:
* 9 flushes
* 3 sets
* 2 two-pair

So you already beat 5 of 14 value combos I bet OTR. 5/14=35%. Plus there is a chance villain bluff some combos (I would have some bluff for sure - will occasionally turn into bluff some QJ JT).

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