NL50 3bp FD+GS vs huge flop Cbet in 3way

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NL50 3bp FD+GS vs huge flop Cbet in 3way

BB 0 hands
MP reg 20/16
Fold? Call and folding turn on any no spades/Q/8?

Thanks :)

9 Comments

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Kalichakra 9 years, 9 months ago

we have 45% vs AA and the pot is already pretty big, so i'm jamming.

Limp Limpson 9 years, 9 months ago

we'll have a little bit under PSB left if we call.

Whats the benefit of jamming? do you think we have FE? If not, jamming makes no sense, since we're ip and we wont be making mistakes ott. MP can have sets/higher fds too, I just dont think we gain too much by jamming the flop. We can call and evaluate turn. Sure, if the turn bricks (or better yet is a 7/8) and both of them gii, we can calc the equity and we might be forced to call them off again.

Given how in love the BB seems to be with his hand, I find it experemly unlikely that he is gonna just xFolds AA if we bink our flush..and even if he does, we're likely to be paid off by the second palyer

But I mean obv we have a lot of equity, so its almost impossible to make a huge mistake.

Kalichakra 9 years, 9 months ago

we drop from 45% to 26% OTT and in theory we should always have a little bit of FE.

If we call OTF and fold OTT we're always losing the money we invested so far instead of realising 100% of our equity.

Limp Limpson 9 years, 9 months ago

thats not a correct argument though, isnt it. Obv assuming that the guy who potted the flop into two people is not folding, which is reasonable. In my opinion.

if he is not folding, than jamming is not a bluff and its obv not a valuejam. Since we have correct odds to call, we can call.
If we wont get the odds ott, we should fold ott and be grateful that we could save some money. Thank the player pool for being so grossly imbalanced in these spots.

You can argue that we have fold equity, in which case jamming could be superior (and we'll agree to disagree, you might very well be correct and we might have some FE, I just dont think thats the case), but the equity difference between the flop and the turn is irrelevant to the argument at hand.

Kalichakra 9 years, 9 months ago

even if he doesn't fold i realise 100% of my equity and win 45% of the pot. There's always the possibilty that villain is playing QQ like that because he doesn't know what else to do eg.

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