NL50 3bet pot, TPTK gets raised on the turn
Posted by holopainen
Posted by holopainen posted in Low Stakes
NL50 3bet pot, TPTK gets raised on the turn
BN: $82.82
SB: $50
BB: $50 (Hero)
UTG: $67.31
HJ: $74.48
CO: $54.92
SB: $50
BB: $50 (Hero)
UTG: $67.31
HJ: $74.48
CO: $54.92
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $5, CO calls $3.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $5, CO calls $3.50
Flop
($10.75)
K
6
5
(2 Players)
Hero bets $5,
CO calls $5
Turn
($20.75)
K
6
5
T
(2 Players)
Hero bets $10,
CO raises to $29.67
Villain in is basically unknown, 21/14 over 21 hands. He was playing 3 tables, which might indicate that he is recreational but I wouldn't read too much into it.
What is your general population read in these spots? I want to fold here, I don't think I'm being exploited.
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From a GTO stand point I think we can call turn and check/decide most rivers.
My reasoning:
1. We're close to the top of our range. Other than AA/KK, AK is next. If we are going to bet fold this turn we could consider doing that with some worse TP hands such as KQ/KJ (which blocks QJ) and worse.
2. We don't block any of villain's bluffing hands (spades, 7x, 8x, Qx, Jx)
3. Villain can have many bluffs in his range on this particular turn card Eg. 87s, A6ss, A5ss, AQss, AJss.
4. Villain has no reason to raise a set yet since the board is not that co-ordinated. If he had a set he could likely flat this turn and wait to jam the river. Also we block KTs and he can't have KK.
If we're going to fold this, it's as an exploitative play against the general 50NL population: turn raises are just really strong, especially in a 3B pot on this run out and against a 21/14 who is likely just playing ABC TAG poker. I think you'll see TT a lot here tbh.
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