NL50 2x overbet river bluff vs. UTG
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 2x overbet river bluff vs. UTG
Villain is 21/18 with a 3-bet of 7.3% and F3B of 65%. UTG open is 17%. I 3-bet ATs here to have some kind of 3-bet bluffing range vs. his UTG open since I think 17% is a bit on the high side and he might give my MP 3-bet more credit. All the other players behind me are tight players except for CO which might not make this the best in hindsight.
When he c/c this flop I expect his range to be AK, QQ, TT, and some slowplayed KK. He could have AQhh or AJhh although I think with such great equity he can CR those hands to get me off AK/QQ. T9hh also makes sense until the river.
I check the turn because I don't think I can get many of his hands to fold other than QQ which there are only 6 combos of and 9 combos of AK, 6 combos of KK/TT, and the 2 combos of AQhh/AJhh.
On the river I think it's a bad card for villain because if I'm bluffing here with Axhh or QJs then I just got there and I would probably take the same line with those hands too.
I decide to pull the trigger and overbet 2x pot since I don't think he can realistically call with any hands other than the 2 nut flushes and the sets must not be happy. I'm just worried that my line may look a bit spazzy/bluffy and get hero called here by something like AK. If that's the case then this is terrible.
Thoughts?
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I dont really like an overbet here cause we dont rep that much. I think a turn barrel and river shove gets far more credibility. When we check the turn, we never have AA,KK,AK and our range is weighted super heavily to bluffs, TT-QQ. I also dont think we can rep flushes cause if we have a FD OTT in a 3bet pot, were definitely betting it.
I think I'd rather just take my SDV than trying to bluff him here though. I just think the spots bad cause he has a tighter range
Why would you cb flop? You will only get called by better and all worse hands fold.
Same scenario on the river. Why are you shoving the river? Hoping to fold out better or get called by worse? Which none of those will happen.
my main concern with the overbet is that villain doesn't have to be weak here he can reasonably have a low flush or made straight that is being played passively
I have to admit that I was on tilt when I played this hand. Not like B-game tilt but C-game tilt which I haven't experienced in 2 months.
I did manage to get him back yesterday though when I made a similar huge overbet with the nuts and got called light. He probably had a note on me that said I was a donkey. Interesting meta game dynamic developing between us because of this hand.
I made a note on my tilt profile that includes overbetting and trying to outplay regs when I get tired or bored. Hopefully this won't happen again.
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