NL50 2x overbet river bluff vs. UTG
Posted by bdon22
Posted by bdon22 posted in Low Stakes
NL50 2x overbet river bluff vs. UTG
Villain is 21/18 with a 3-bet of 7.3% and F3B of 65%. UTG open is 17%. I 3-bet ATs here to have some kind of 3-bet bluffing range vs. his UTG open since I think 17% is a bit on the high side and he might give my MP 3-bet more credit. All the other players behind me are tight players except for CO which might not make this the best in hindsight.
When he c/c this flop I expect his range to be AK, QQ, TT, and some slowplayed KK. He could have AQhh or AJhh although I think with such great equity he can CR those hands to get me off AK/QQ. T9hh also makes sense until the river.
I check the turn because I don't think I can get many of his hands to fold other than QQ which there are only 6 combos of and 9 combos of AK, 6 combos of KK/TT, and the 2 combos of AQhh/AJhh.
On the river I think it's a bad card for villain because if I'm bluffing here with Axhh or QJs then I just got there and I would probably take the same line with those hands too.
I decide to pull the trigger and overbet 2x pot since I don't think he can realistically call with any hands other than the 2 nut flushes and the sets must not be happy. I'm just worried that my line may look a bit spazzy/bluffy and get hero called here by something like AK. If that's the case then this is terrible.
Thoughts?
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