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NL5 Zoom - Give up on Riv?

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NL5 Zoom - Give up on Riv?

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) BN: $10.74 (Hero)
SB: $5.00
BB: $6.65
UTG: $5.00
MP: $5.13
CO: $7.13
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is BN with 7 8
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.11, SB calls $0.09, BB folds
Flop ($0.27) 9 T 2
SB bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.15
Turn ($0.57) 9 T 2 5
SB bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.36, SB calls $0.96
River ($3.29) 9 T 2 5 A
SB checks, Hero bets $9.12 and is all in, SB calls $3.38 and is all in
Final Pot BN lost and shows high card Ace.
SB wins and shows two pair, Tens and Nines.
SB wins $9.63
Rake is $0.42
I feel like the ace is especially a good card to bluff on, maybe riv shove just doesn't generate enough folds against NL5 population?

Any help would be appreciated :)

5 Comments

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Tyler Forrester 7 years, 4 months ago

River bluff is good/neutral. I like the hand. The lower variance route would be flat the turn and fold river. It's not sexy, but does a nice job of exploiting calling stations and limiting rec upswings.

Tyler Forrester 7 years, 4 months ago

Raising increases the recs variance, recs lose at -X bbs/100-- plus or minus Y bbs/100. The Y bbs/100 is a function of the variance. When rec variance is small, Y is small and the rec variance is large, Y is large.

Variance is symmetrical around the X, so in theory the recs would generate as many bigger wins and bigger losses when the variance increases. However in practice most pros try to minimize Y when playing recreational players. As recs win, they tend to play better. People who are winning tend to make better decisions and to start folding more. Folding more improves most recreational players strategies. By minimizing the variance, I can assure the recs will play worse on average, because they will have less big wins.

You might make the argument that most recs will play worse when losing larger. However, most recs run out of money at this point, so we don't get the chance play in this part of the game tree very often.

Zenful 7 years, 4 months ago

Still the boss Tyler, mad respect for such a comprehensive an insightful answer. Another building block in the foundation of your poker game - take note anyone playing these stakes filled with whales.

Bingo 123 7 years, 4 months ago

I like just flatting turn more, it removes the possibility to get 3-bet on the flop. You are IP get a good price. There are still river's to bluff when we face a check. I don't see too much FE vs these types when they take this line.

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