NL5 Zoom Bluffcatching Spot
Posted by Pokerlogical
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Pokerlogical
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NL5 Zoom Bluffcatching Spot
SB: $5.09
BB: $8.42
UTG: $5.51
MP: $5.77
CO: $5.00 (Hero)
CO wins and shows two pair, Tens and Sevens.
CO wins $9.97
Rake is $0.43
I didn't know much about SB so I thought that his flopcheck was weak.
MP could think the same and bet out with a lot of bluffs. I certainly can't fold my hand on the flop.
On the Turn it gets very interesting. I block TT and 77 is also really unlikely now so he is only betting for value JJ maybe QQ (people don't 4bet QQ in this spot sometimes actually).
But I feel like I'm almost top of my range so I have to call Turn also.
River is interesting because it shifts his Valuerange from JJ-QQ to flushes. Also he instashoved River which polarizes his range a little. I think with JJ people may shove but they will tank at least for like 3-5 seconds because I might have quads here/full house.
Well if he knows me he should know that I always 3bet TT CO vs MP (is this a leak?)?
I think one detail that makes my hand more of a call is actually SB folding range. SB folding range has a ton of Ax, making it less likely that MP has an Ace. Also since I have the Ace of hearts it's more likely that SB folded the Ace of Spades, since there are now less AQ/AK combos with a heart in them.
Value he should have about 16 combos on river (A2ss,A4ss,A5ss,A6ss,A8ss,A9ss,AJss,AQss,KQss,KJss,K9ss,QJss,Q9ss,J9ss,77,TT). So the question is how many bluffs we need to find to make this a +EV call? Not many I feel like.
Was my play +EV?
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The SB squeeze size is very small. MP could be calling pre with 87s, 76s and 97s, since he already has good pot odds and he will figure that you'll also likely call because you're getting a good price closing the action.
I think his value range on the river is wider than what you list. He could have any 7, 55, JJ, and occasionally trapped AA or KK. He could also be value betting something like AT: since you only have 60% pot left behind on the river, it's not crazy to shove TPTK there. Still, let's leave aside TPTK for now.
So his value range is something like: JJ,TdTh,TdTc,ThTc,7h7c,5h5s,5h5c,5s5c,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,As9s,Ks9s,Qs9s,Js9s,As8s,9s8s,9h7h,9c7c,8h7h,8c7c,As6s,7h6h,7c6c,As5s,As4s,As2s
which is 34 combos.
You're getting 2.6 to 1 on the river to call, so he can bluff with 34/2.6 or roughly 13 combos.
What are the bluffs? 86s and 98s are the obvious ones. That's 6 combos. Maybe J9s? That's 3 more. Some diamond FDs maybe? Don't know. What did he show up with?
He showed AJo. I thought that he might turn 88-99 into a bluff also.
AJo is a rather loose call pre (it doesn't play well multiway). And it is a weird bluff candidate.
I might be wrong here but... 3.66/(3.66+(3.66+4.62)) = 3.66/(3.66+8.28) = 3.66/11.94 = ~31% which is closer to like 2.1 to 1
34/2.1 ish so we would need to find 16 combos (more than first speculated)
Personally, this seems like a high variance call because it's so close so I would fold.
Was MP a complete unknown? seems like a strong line for 5NL
But I has pair.
Chacarron91 Hero only has 2.89 left behind on river. So Hero needs to put in 2.89 to win 2.89 + 4.62 = 7.51. So he's getting 2.6 to 1 on the call.
If you want to work using equities, he needs 2.89 / (2.89 + 2.89 + 4.62) or 28% equity to call.
belrio42 Agh thanks! I knew I had to be missing something because you went so in depth with it. (I learned the 34/2.6 from you too so thanks! :D)
belrio42 is there a poker math book or video series you would suggest for poker math?
Chacarron91 I haven't read a lot of poker books, but this idea of value vs bluffs is a very old one. You can find it in many places.
The poker book I like the most (it contains all the basic ideas and the required math) is The Grinder's Manual: A Complete Course in Online No Limit Holdem 6-Max Cash Games by Peter Clarke
belrio42 Ya I was familiar with the value/bluff ratio concept but not the simple equation. Sweet, I just started that book about 2 weeks ago! I'll take a sneak peak at the math part in regards to this ;)
Calling pre is meh. Stuff like ATs and TT are fringe hands that can probably be slightly profitable to call pre but 3 betting seems superior to me. You win so many pots preflop and you make it much much more likely to be heads up IP vs. MP. MP is going to have a bunch of unpaired high card suited hands here and a bunch of middling pairs that C/F a ton on flop.
As played, fold river. Would be calling on a lot of non spade blanks though.
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