NL5 - Triple Barreling for Value and getting raised

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL5 - Triple Barreling for Value and getting raised

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) SB: $4.07
BB: $5.00
UTG: $5.00
MP: $1.99
CO: $5.07 (Hero)
BN: $1.85
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is CO with A A
UTG checks, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.20, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.15
villain seems fishy but I dont know if we are sure about that here. I have very few hands on him. Only 6. Another stat also I have is the limp% which is 3 out of 3 times
Flop ($0.47) 9 6 5
UTG bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, UTG calls $0.30
Turn ($1.37) 9 6 5 4
UTG bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65
River ($2.67) 9 6 5 4 Q
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG raises to $3.00, Hero folds
So here he could have 78s, 73s or 32s(For the last 2 hands I think he does not have them often). He may also have 99, 66, 55 and 44 and 2pairs like 96s, 65s, 54s, 64s, Q9s. I exclude QQ or any overpair since those are a raise for sure pre. I triple barreled and he raised on my last bet. I think almost always this is for value. Now I think he would do that with hands of 2pair +. If he had sth like AQ or KQ here, I think he would check call. Also if he had AQ or KQ here it would be only 2 combos possibly(those of the missed fds but we block the one). I dont really think he would call 2 streets with just Ace High + No FD or King High.

Lastly he may not even have AQ here when he checks because he might have opened that preflop.

So straights are 12 combos, sets are 12 combos and if he raises KQ of missed fd on the river, that's only 1 combo vs 24 that crush us. I think we need to fold this one(and I didn't even include the combos for 2pairs.)
Final Pot UTG wins $5.43
Rake is $0.24

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