NL5 - Should we defend vs this cbet?

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NL5 - Should we defend vs this cbet?

Hi guys,

Villain (368 hh) plays 31/23 with MP open% = 23.
Cbet Flop 53%.
Cbet Turn 75%.

Our odds are 33% vs this psb. Do we have enough equity to defend this gutshot + bdfd?

9 Comments

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HawksWin 6 years, 8 months ago

Calling flop. There are a bunch of turn cards you can improve on (3's, 5's, clubs, 6's, 7's). He also has a bunch of whiffs in his range where you can attack if he checks on the turn.

James Hudson 6 years, 7 months ago

Same here. I would probably fold the flop without a backdoor flush draw though. That added equity is going to make it much easier to withstand pressure when we face turn bets.

NothingVentured 6 years, 7 months ago

If I’m calling pre then it’s with the intension of floating and raising some of these low flops vs UTG range.

That said, in MWP I lend to think folks are less inclined to bluff so I think a folds okay.

TexasFoldUmmm 6 years, 7 months ago

I would call the flop for a better price or you probably aren't defending enough with the gutshot/BDFD. I think once he pots it on the flop you can fold especially multi way. His 3-bet % would be a good thing to know.

Erdis 6 years, 7 months ago

I think flat 67s preflop is a good idea if you assume that vilain is too loose preflop and make mistakes postflop. Flop you can't fold I mean if you fold here why did you come here in the first place? He bets pot and it can be scary (I put him in 99+ and honestly they often has overpairs) but he does have some hand like A high, K high. Like they said, turn you're in position and the turn card will tell you what to do: fold or raise if vilain is to aggressive.

craig c 6 years, 7 months ago

Pre warning: I play 5nl fastforward

Even with a villain range of 88+, aq+ you have 27-31% (which surprised me). My general read is bs=hs hence the range. I would usually have folded this, however given we have 31% I'm now calling one street.

27-31% pot odds + % of future streets if we hit (strong range + gutshot harder to see) =>33%

quite an interesting spot for the turn if were assuming the above range.
we hit a 6 or 7 and he still bets the exact same range - tough spot we have 39% equity but our river playability puts me off. can go either way.
turn = 6 or 7 and believe he doesn't bet his aq or ak - fold
turn= club and he bets nearly pot - call

If you've played a lot of hands, you could check your database for similar bet sizes from the population. Or maybe check hands against this opponent to see if he saw you call down light.

nb: 27% pro poker tools, 31% equilab

James Hudson 6 years, 7 months ago

Hey, for the flop range for our opponent we'd probably want to include 22 and 44 as well given that they're opening 23% of hands from that position.

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