NL5 - Facing tough spot with TPTK on river
Posted by HaAbDe
Posted by
HaAbDe
posted in
Low Stakes
NL5 - Facing tough spot with TPTK on river
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (5 Players)
CO: $5.10
BN: $5.58
SB: $5.87 (Hero)
BB: $7.03
UTG: $4.93
BN: $5.58
SB: $5.87 (Hero)
BB: $7.03
UTG: $4.93
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is SB with
K
A
, ,
Villain looks most likely like a reg based on about 50 hands we have for him
Flop
($0.24)
4
A
9
,
Turn
($0.52)
4
A
9
9
, ,
River
($1.02)
4
A
9
9
4
, ,
I think I should fold here. There are many 9s villain would call pre and he has those here. Stuff like A9, K9, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97s, 96s. I don't think he bets here for value an Ace. Even if he bets AJ, AT(didnt include AK or AQ because I assume he most often 3bets those pre) then our equity vs that range on river is 27.6%(including all 9s from before except A9 and also 44, 99(assuming he raises those on flop). In reality that's not true. He slowplays them also.) Our pot odds are 29,6% though. There is the rake also... I think we should fold here.
Loading 6 Comments...
agree on folding river. Not even easy to find hands he might be bluffing
Forgot to talk about the bluffing part in the calculations I did earlier. RaoulFlush, do you think villain would bluff sometimes here? I think he might do that with missed fds and even missed sds like 53s. There were already 2 rounds of betting though and I think the average reg in micro stakes might not want to put a big bluff bet on river in this spot.(I am comparing it to the low frequency the average reg 3barrel bluffs on micros. That's anyway my understanding on the average reg. I might be wrong though and they might 3barrel bluff often enough. If that's the case then let me know) Not sure about this. What do you think?
Tbh. ive been grinding some NL5 the last days as well after a decade or so. I just remember everybody saying that nobody is ever bluffing at these limits, which would make your hand pretty easy to play.
But i have to admit that some opponents on stars aint that bad as i would have expected.
So if he is really a reg i could be somewhat wrong here with my gameplan.
I don't think you should be checking the Turn at 5nl I believe it's much better to keep betting and fold when you get raised.
I like your line, it´s how I would play also. Don´t think 5nl regs are finding many bluffs here, or barreling a worse A (and they´re 3betting AK/AQ as you just stated, along with other lower AXs), so yeah, I´m folding river too.
So our assumptions are he is 1) a reg after 50 hands (I have looked both like a nit and a fish after 50 hands at a table) 2) he doesn't have a worse A in his value betting range 3) if he is a reg, he will be more likely have some bluffs/ thin value here 4) If he is a reg, how does our range look to him? 5) If he is a reg, he will print vs us by just hammering our b/x/x line.
Bottom line, without reads, this feels like an overfold. With reads, and a guy that is aggressive about 20% of the time on the river, we can start to make some laydowns with this much of our range.
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