NL5 - Could this be an exploitative fold?
Posted by OMGxSkillzZ
Posted by
OMGxSkillzZ
posted in
Low Stakes
NL5 - Could this be an exploitative fold?
* Villain is a Multitabler who plays 26/13 after 150 hands *
Hero (BTN): €5.00
SB: €3.62
BB: €4.32
UTG: €5.15
CO: €7.19
SB posts SB €0.02, BB posts BB €0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: €0.07) Hero has Qc 9c
fold, CO raises to €0.20, Hero calls €0.20, fold, fold
* Q9s is not part of my BTN vs CO 3bet range. I prefer flatting this type of hands *
Flop : (€0.47, 2 players) Th Jh 5c
CO checks, Hero bets €0.22, CO calls €0.22
* I think this is a standard bet here with SD in position vs OR *
Turn : (€0.91, 2 players) Kd
CO checks, Hero bets €1.25, CO raises to €5.00, Hero calls €3.33 and is all-in
* I decided to overbet here to extract max value from hands like (hearts hearts) or TT / JJ. I could also do this move with AhXh so if think it's well balanced. When Villain xraises, we only lose vs AQ, and we block a queen. Is this a cooler?*
River : (€10.07, 2 players) Jc
Hero shows Qc 9c (Straight, King High)
(Pre 30%, Flop 27%, Turn 3%)
CO shows Ah Qd (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 70%, Flop 73%, Turn 97%)
CO wins €9.40
Loading 4 Comments...
This is 100% a cooler. As you said the only hand which beats you is AQ which you hold a blocker to. He could play TT JJ KK or AA and some bluffs like AhXh this way.
I see you've said that this isn't in your 3 bet range. Vs the 4x open i think this is definitely a fold or 3bet considering rake, and probably even be a fold in a no rake environment. The amount of times you get squeezed in these spots decreases the EV of a flat here a lot. This is a good 3bet in a polarised strategy. This is probably only a call vs an open raise of 2.5x or less.
OTF i think sizing is good as villains check is not necessarily capping, and you can expect to be x/r'd at a high frequency.
I'm not sure about the turn overbet. Its definitely a flop where villain should be check raising often, so given the fact he check called caps his range, although maybe not on the K turn. Villain can have the nuts a lot more often as you'll be 3betting AQ at a high frequency pre flop.
Thank you for your answer.
What would I had to do if Villain had xRaised the flop instead? Should We jam flop in that situation?
Seems well played. It is certainly a cooler.
Not sure about the overbet. I don't think it is bad but it will narrow down his call/playback range a little bit but at our stakes, people are probably going to call anyway. Something closer to pot is going to accomplish the same thing I would think but I can get on board with your line for sure.
Preflop is probably a fold in general, but I guess you could make some money againts fishy opponents. But in general I'd fold.
Turn is tough. I don' think I would overbet. Villain is nowhere near capped so I don't think we get to do many overbets here. I'd prefer a more standard size of 75% or so.
When we overbet and villain shoves, it really isn't great. We can definitely find a fold againts regs. It doesn't really make sense for villain to have anything worse than a straight unless he seriously overvalues his hands or wants to bluffshove for some reason. But I think that the turn overbet is sort of an overplay to begin with, AQ is a very decent part of villains range.
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