NL400 Valuebet river ? fixing my range
Posted by Juan Copani
Posted by
Juan Copani
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL400 Valuebet river ? fixing my range
SB: $501.25
BB: $400
CO: $400 (Hero)
BN: $422.50
BB: $400
CO: $400 (Hero)
BN: $422.50
Preflop
($6.00)
(4 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
K
Hero raises to $12, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $8
Hero raises to $12, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $8
Flop
($26.00)
6
2
T
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $15.89,
BB calls $15.89
Turn
($57.78)
6
2
T
9
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $36.01,
BB calls $36.01
River
($129.80)
6
2
T
9
6
(2 Players)
BB checks
fold cbets % 46/39/78
call bb vs co steal 17%
3b bb vs co steal 8%
I get to the river with 68% ( 99+, 66, 22, 78s, KTo, KTs, ATo, ATs) made hands and 32% (JQo, JQs, KQhh, KJhh, T8hh, 45hh, 75hh, AXhh) busteddraws
If i bet river like $90 he has to win about 32% for EV+, so should i bluff my entire range here ? I would like valuebet as wide as i could, is KTdd the bottom of my value range ? or is in my check back range ?
Would you make some changes to my turn bet range or river range ?
Im curios about how should i play some specific hands like 75hh, T8hh, JTo, QTo in TURN ...
All coments and advices are welcome.. !
Loading 7 Comments...
As you correctly analyzed your range, KTs is probably right away the bottom of your value-range, so it makes not that much of a difference (for your overall range) if you bet or check. If the numbers are somewhat reliable I might xb KT though, because it doesn´t hurt your range and he might not call much worse after you 3-barreling him on a board that a) did not leave much room for draws and b) hit his range better than yours.
Would u bluff less combos if u see a call of 89s, or u just start valuebeting more wide ?
I need my river bluff works 40% of the time for autoprofit. I always thought that even if he is calling a huge amount of the time, or more than 60%, i still want a few bluffs in my range, even if they are EV-. I don´t want an image for myself where i always have it when i bet. Is this a correct argument or am i wrong ?
So, you analyze Villain´s range and come up with how many bluffcatchers and how many strong value hands he can have. Then you come up with the maximum range you can potentially valuebet against that range (so he has a) enough bluffcatchers and b) those bluffcatchers have to be worse than your value-betting hands).
Finally you add up enough bluffs to your value-range that Villain is break-even.
Like in your example his range maybe consists of:
99-88, T9s, 98s, 97s, 87s, 86s, 76s, 65s, AT-JT
Against that range KTs has 55% equity (I eliminated any slowplayed sets aside of 99 from his range, as I expect him to x/r the flop most of the time).
Technically this is sufficient against his bluffcatchers - yet, it´s kinda close because of the fact that you won´t shove so you´ll be in risk of him x/r you (for value and/or as bluff), so betting or checking most likely not makes a big difference, neither in EV nor in relation to your overall-range.
And last but not least - once you have defined a GTO-range (by feel or calculated) you can deviate to exploit Villain´s tendencies. Like if you know he´s folding too much to 3-barrels, then you can increase your bluff% and potentially cut off the bottom end of your value-range (like KTdd). If you instead know that he´s bluffcatching superwide (with say 77 in this spot due to his blockers) then you can decrease your bluff% and valuebet thinner.
Thanks
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