NL400 Two Hero Folds aka Am I Insane?
Posted by UpUpAndAway
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UpUpAndAway
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Mid Stakes
NL400 Two Hero Folds aka Am I Insane?
So here's 2 unforunate hero folds where I'm just wondering if they are ok or if they're too weak-tight...
Hero Fold 1:
SB: $400 (100 bb)
BB: $450 (112.5 bb)
UTG: $190.13 (47.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $441.80 (110.5 bb)
CO: $1,077.42 (269.4 bb)
BTN: $436.57 (109.1 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 2d 2h
UTG folds, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, SB calls $10, BB folds
Flop: ($28) 2s 5c Jh (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB calls $16
Turn: ($60) 8s (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $42, SB raises to $116, Hero calls $74
River: ($292) 3h (2 players)
SB bets $256 and is all-in, Hero folds
Villain is a 31/24 winning reg. After 350 hands he has a 6% flopXR and 20% turnXR although I'm sure those are very skewed given the sample size. I haven't seen him get out of line at all.
Hero Fold 2:
SB: $685.61 (171.4 bb)
BB: $437.40 (109.4 bb)
UTG: $443.55 (110.9 bb)
MP: $429.60 (107.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $400 (100 bb)
BTN: $739.54 (184.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Kd Qd
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, BTN calls $8, SB raises to $24, BB folds, Hero calls $16, BTN calls $16
Flop: ($76) 9d 7d 4d (3 players)
SB bets $40, Hero calls $40, BTN calls $40
Turn: ($196) Qh (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $118, BTN calls $118, SB folds
River: ($432) 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $557.54 and is all-in, Hero folds
BTN is a 20/12 nit after 2.4k hands. 2.5% 3bet from the BTN and most of his stats are in line with a normal nit's. SB is a 38/27 fish with a 14% 3bet.
Loading 7 Comments...
How much he folds to flop cbet oop in the first hand? I don't fold 22 unless his fold cbet oop is rly high
2nd hand it's a fold vs 20/12, imo
I think it is 2 very good fold, that I am only able to make when I am playing my A game.
First one, his range should be a lot of PP when he calls OOP in SB. And we are crushed by JJ, 88 and 55. If he was never out of line, looks like a good fold.
Nothing to say to the second one.
My 2 cents:
Hand 1 is a very bad fold on the river. It's a snap call man, this guy can c/r so many flushdraws on the turn, and the river is completetly blank. He could even valueshove here with J8 imo.
Hand 2:
against a nit this is very good fold on the river indeed.
He never get J8s in his range and he got very few BDFD...
I do believe he's 3betting SBvsMP with JJ+ and AK. So we can imo discount JJ.
Villain is 31/24 over 350 hand sample (decent sample). That's pretty lose. Given his high VPIP (31), I think he's cold-calling in the SB here with a pretty wide range which includes A9s-AQs as well as A2s-A5s.
(J8s is maybe too optimistic, so in the below I have not included that in his range.)
The flop is very dry, thus I can assure you he's floating the flop with most Axs with BDF. Also KQs (in one of the 3 suits on the flop) he's for sure floating the flop with, because of BDF + 2 overs (and also backdoor-straight-draw).
Thus, on the turn, I believe his C/R range as a very minimum contains:
88,55,AsQs,AsTs,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s
Against such a range, assuming he shoves the given river (3h) with the whole range (which I think he does) we are good 36% of the time, and given the pot odds on the river, we need to be good +32% of the time to make money by calling.
I haven't even added KsQs in his range here, which is a hand I also believe he peels the flop with, and very likely also C/R turn with. Add that combo to his range, and we are good 42% of the time on the river.22 is simply too high up in our range to fold river against a loose opponent who is capable of c/r pretty wide on the turn (due to his 20% C/R turn stat over 350 hand sample). We don't even have the 2-spade.
I mean, if a spade had hit the river, it would had been easy fold. But this 3h is pretty blank, only As4s which completes (which is included in the above range).
Also we could probably fold AA on the river here for example, because thus we don't block for the 3 combos of 22 he has in his range. If we had the ace of spades, then it would be a trivial fold on the river, because we block so many of his semi bluffs.
But 22 without spade is too high up in our range to fold river. That's for sure, especially against a laggy villain like this.
How the fuck can you call profitably with A5s- SB, OOP vs MP, or peel this flop OOP with ATs ?
I know villain seems laggy, but I don't think he is braindead to flat these hands PF. And JJ seems always a flat, unless he got a 10% 3B all postions, like few regz can have.
I think your range is fucked, if villain was BB, OK, there is a lot more incentive to call these hands. But in the SB, I think his range is the tightest range possible at the table.
I probably end up sigh-folding 22, flatting range from sb shouldn't have too many bluffs here and is likely to play 88 and 55 like this always.
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