nl400 Should i bluff ?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

nl400 Should i bluff ?

SB: $511.75
BB: $690.91
HJ: $406
CO: $532.04
BN: $462.39 (Hero)
Preflop ($6.00) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt K Q
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $8, SB raises to $32, BB folds, Hero calls $24
Flop ($70.00) 2 T 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $36, Hero calls $36
Turn ($142.00) 2 T 5 4 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $90, SB calls $90
River ($322.00) 2 T 5 4 6 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $304.39, and is all in, SB calls $304.39
Final Pot
Hero has K Q SB has A T SB wins $925.98

Villain is an aggresive reg who 3bets from the SB 15%, and use to barrel a lot. My main plan in flop is raise his cbet, but in order to balance my range i decided to call this time. Besides, he is very aggresive an at the moment i felt like he would be bluff-barreling his entire stack in K or Q turns, and i also could make a turn float again in some scary turns like this one if he bets again.

I´ts important to note that i have an aggresive dinamic against him, he saw me bluff him too many times, and doesnt give me to much credit when i bet. But at the same time when i came to the river with this hand, and this runout, i feel obligate to bluff. If i don´t bluff this hand, i don´t bluff ever. Are my reasons correct ? 

I think i don´t have too many bluffs in my range, and he has a difficult time calling. I check behind turn with AQ 100% of the time. Maybe i could turn into a bluff some AJ without hearts, but i think i should not keep bluffing in river.

My value range: 

12 combo set

6 combo flush

6 combo JJ

1 combo of ATs (with card removal effect) 

Would you play different at any point of the hand ? Why ? 



5 Comments

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BigFiszh 11 years, 10 months ago

Mmmh ... my first gut was that the runout and the action is a perfect spot for you to ship the river. But once you mentioned the dynamic/history between you both I came to the conclusion that he probably might have induced exactly that, meaning he´s likely never x/c the turn with the intention to fold on a blank river.

That said, with the given history you likely should´ve checked the turn, repping showdown value and then decide on the river.

Juan Copani 11 years, 10 months ago

I thought the same while i was playing the hand, the runout is perfect to ship. But now that i post this hand i realize that if i bet all my KQ i´d be exploitable.


What do you think of play a non-4bet-strategy against this kind of regs who tend to never believe me ?? Looks that i need QQ+ with a higher frecquency against them.

lwe 11 years, 10 months ago

i like your river bet but i think a slightly smaller sizing might be more convincing. When we ship the river for nearly pot, we are basically saying we have a flush and only a flush. I think a smaller size would say we could have a lot more hands that we are trying to get light value from like 2pair type hands, overpairs like jj, and we also could credibly rep a flush as well with a smaller bet but with a bigger bet i think we are yelling at him "HEY I EITHER HAVE A FLUSH OR NOTHING". i like $264.

mplecki23 11 years, 10 months ago

I think if he's super barrely, I'd want to start shoving turns vs him with a good mix of things. Barrely can mean a few things, and if he's barreling say repeats or idk like a 7c turn with Broadway Broadway hands, it seems like things are going to get sticky with floating KQ and then having to jam turns with very little equity when called (however probably have a lot of FE). 

I'm by any means not sure if that is going to be the best adjustment vs someone just betting a ton, but I don't think floating KQ and facing a dbl barrel a lot is going to be fun, although I understand he might be betting a Q or K turn 100% on turn and river.

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