NL400 Set Play
Posted by UpUpAndAway
Posted by UpUpAndAway posted in Mid Stakes
NL400 Set Play
Hero (SB): $635.61 (158.9 bb)
BB: $534.75 (133.7 bb)
UTG: $400 (100 bb)
MP: $119.74 (29.9 bb)
CO: $450.23 (112.6 bb)
BTN: $559 (139.8 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9c 9d
2 folds, CO raises to $10, BTN calls $10, Hero calls $8, BB folds
CO is a 24/19 good reg opening 24% in the CO. BUT is a bad reg that doesn;t enjoy folding to 3bets too often so I decided to just flat.
Flop: ($34) 7d 3h 9s (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $24.22, BTN folds, Hero calls $24.22
Turn: ($82.44) Jc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $59.58, Hero calls $59.58
I don't have too many bluffs at all on this turn and villain's barrel stats in position are 66/45/78 so I think he's firing lots of rivers if I just call. It's also nice to have this strong of a hand in my turn check/call range to protect my weaker pairs from being barreled.
River: ($201.60) Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $155
So my main question is whether to call this river or jam it. The river raise wouldn't be for a ton more given his bet size so I wouldn't ever have any bluffs in this spot. Assuming he calls all of his sets and T8s, my jam should actually be a loser unless he calls the rest off with a few 2 pair combos which I'm not entirely sure about.
We have a bit of history with each other and I'm sure have caught each other in the occassional bluff but this isn't likely a spot I would do so, his 2 pair hands are merely bluff catchers after my jam, and villain is good enough to know this.
So should I just call?
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