given villains stats, go back in time and fold the flop :/ sry. at this point, fold the turn.

i'll prob get flamed for being weak or whatever but what's the point of calling flop even? you're basically just spite calling / praying he's gonna just bet only once then shut down AND not hit the winning hand.

yeah sure he can be bluffing! I just personally don't really like to guess like this vs tight players. the one stat that jumps out at me is his high btn vs CO 3 bet. i don't play full ring but he seems like a rather tight player otherwise. I wonder if the sample size was weird for that stat?

anyway I dunno...sure he can be bluffing...this spot is just guesswork for you though to check/call 3 streets. are you folding if a club hits the river? an A? a K? T? those will hit like a third of the time or so. So if he's bluffing and you are going to fold on those cards and he's going to bluff them, you've now lost a flop and turn call.

also he could have some 4-6 out hands. (gutshots Ax, etc or pairs 7x, 5x). So those will be all low cards when they hit..that's like another 10% of the time. I'm guessing if you call turn, you're gonna call if a low card hits.

he could also already be ahead. I see no reason he wouldn't just bet bet bet KQ+ here (maybe check KQ on flush rivers?)

I mean I'm not trying to sound paranoid but I think the BEST case scenario for you calling the flop is he has AK or AJ or 99 or something and just stops betting. If he is a barreler I think you're just going to get outplayed / owned too much. I'd just fold right on the flop for those reasons vs this player. If I had a stat where he doesn't cbet turn much or something, then I might continue in the hand. but by continue i'd likely be just checking and hoping to go to showdown.

check/calling him down with a middling hand isn't really playing back at him. If you wanna play back you can start to do some obv things (4 bet more / wider for value, tighten up on CO, etc) and you can also do some stuff to mess with him...like you can check/call down monsters when you get them (KK+ here would be perfect to call a 3 bet then call down...AA too I guess but I'd prob rather 4 bet AA). you can also start to do stuff like check/call flop with big draws then check/shove turns...or c/r your complete misses? you can also donk into him a street or two to see how re reacts to that. I've been experimenting with that in SB vs BB spots but this is sort of close. just rattling off some options...not saying to do this frequently or anything...but enough to fight back to not let him just mess with you with no repercussions 

if he has a 16% 3b BTNvCO, then given a CO open of 25% does this mean he have an accumulated bluff/value range of 1/6(25%)=4%? this seems very tight

if his value range is AK+/JJ+ and bluffs then on Qxxtt he will have Ace high half the time. if it widens to AQ then your equity drops to 33% OTF with cards to come - clearly losing. 

if his 4bet/gin stat is very narrow it means he is flatting AQ/JJ/TT pre

The Q is the 'best' overcard for you, but the overly tight preflop range of villain means you might struggle to profitably call down.

i would want to know how aggressive the villain is on later streets before check/calling this flop. if he cbets once and checks behind then clearly call the flop. 

otherwise, you do better by folding the flop. villain remains very tight in these positions and its your job NOT to pay off his overly tight range 

"given villains stats, go back in time and 4bet/get it in preflop :/ "

FYP. :)

"f he has a 16% 3b BTNvCO, then given a CO open of 25% does this mean he
have an accumulated bluff/value range of 1/6(25%)=4%? this seems very
tight"

What do those numbers mean?! His bluff/value-range is not dependent on our opening-range? And 16% 3bet is just insanely high ... and sample is reasonable.

As i understand it, when he is OTB he 3bets 16% of the time when the CO opens. So for a reasonable CO open of between 20%-25% he would have a range of 16% of 20%-25% ie 1/6 of 20%-25% so between 3.33% and 4.16% BUT this range is some portion bluffs and some portion value. 

"His bluff/value-range is not dependent on our opening-range?"

you mean to tell me your 3bet bluff/value rnage is the same regardless of villains position?

its not 16% 3bet overall, its 16% BTN versus CO.