NL400 Bluff Catching Math Check
Posted by UpUpAndAway
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UpUpAndAway
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Mid Stakes
NL400 Bluff Catching Math Check
SB: $420.01 (105 bb)
BB: $2,098.28 (524.6 bb)
MP: $400 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $593.07 (148.3 bb)
BTN: $1,496.06 (374 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Ac Qh
MP raises to $12, Hero calls $12, 3 folds
Villain is a winning and aggro reg. He's very capable of applying heavy pressure vs capped ranges and seems fairly balanced.
Flop: ($30) Ts Jd Ks (2 players)
MP bets $20, Hero calls $20
Turn: ($70) 2c (2 players)
MP bets $46.66, Hero calls $46.66
River: ($163.32) Kc (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $100, MP raises to $321.34 and is all-in
So assuming villain is balanced on this river, which I believe he's going to be atleast more balanced than the average reg:
Villain risks $321 to win $163+$100+$321 = $321/$583 = 55% = A
So (1-A) = 45% which is the amount of river hands I have to call in order to not let him profit by jamming with any two cards.
I beleive my river betting range consists of the following:
JJ - 3 combos
TT - 3 combos
AQ - 16 combos
AK - 8 combos
KQs - 2 combos
KJs - 1 combo
A9ss-A2ss - 8 combos
Total river betting combos = 41 combos. One thing to note is that it appears my river betting frequency is super value heavy with 32/41 combos being for value. I realize that I should have around 18-20 bluffing combos on the river considering my range however I'm not sure how to balance this out considering that the board hits villain a bit harder than it hits me and I don't get to the river with many bluffs in general. Does this mean I should be value betting a stronger range?
So if (1-A) is 45% then I need to be calling with about 18 combos to his river checkraise:
JJ - 3 combos
TT - 3 combos
KJs - 1 combo
So I still need to find 11 more combos to call the river with. My next strongest hand is AQ so it appears I would need to play a mixed strategy with AQ's 16 total combos. So I could bet/fold the 4 combos of AsQx which blocks his AsXs river bluffing combos which would bring me to approximately the correct river defense frequency.
Please feel free to chime in about any of my math, assumptions, or the value-heavy range dilemma that I've run into on the river!
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Think you need to make some kind of blocker indifferent rather than air.
Super interesting hand!!!
Stuck in business right now, so only a couple of points as food for thoughts:
1) If your range on the river is too value heavy, it´s likely an indicator that you should bet smaller!
2) When you bet smaller, Villain has to risk more, so you have to defend a smaller fraction of your betting-range as well.
3) Do you think actually KQ qualifies as a value bet on the river? Against what hands in Villain´s calling-range are you value betting? I´d say, even AK becomes close ...
4) I´d assume you definitely have to defend some part of your AQ-range and I´d start by eliminating any combos with the As from my calling-range.
Good call about betting smaller when my range is too value heavy, I overlooked that.
And no, I agree that KQ is too thin of a bet and AK becomes very close to say the least!
You made a small mistake there, you have 33 value to 8 bluffing combos.
To be perfectly balanced on the river you can make one of 2 things, and I prefer the 2nd one:
1: Very few bluffs in your range = valubet very tight
Since your betsize is 100/163 he needs 100/263 to call so 38%. So you need to have 38% bluffs (8 combos) and 62% value, that is 13 combos.
So option 1 would be to cut your value bet combos to 13 and checkback alot of the trips/straights enumerated.
2: Very few bluffs in your range compared to value hands = valuebet very small
Since you have 8 bluffs to 33 value bets your sizing should be around 52/163 so he gets 52/(163+52) odds which is equal to 8/33.
Of course, this is impossible to calculate on the spot and my basic approach is small bluff/value ratio that I get to the river with = small vbet.
Your calcs on the % you need to call his raise are right.
Good catch on the 33 total value combos, it was a late night to say the least!
And thanks for showing the math behind why we should bet small with a heavy value range on the river, that makes a lot of sense!
Hi,
There might be a mistake if im not mistaken :)
Villain needs to call 100 to win 263, so he needs 100/363=27.5% eq, which means our betting range should contain 27.5% bluffs.
You beat me to it Will, I was actually just about to say the same thing after thinking more about the math last night.
There might be a mistake if im not mistaken :)
Villain needs to call 100 to win 263, so he needs 100/363=27.5% eq, which means our betting range should contain 27.5% bluffs.
You are perfectly right! My mistake!
So if you are bluffing 8 combos with that sizing you need 21 value combos.
I'm not trying to nitpick nhil and we are likely saying the same thing, but shouldn't we start with how many combos we're value betting on the river and then figure out how many bluff combos off of that, not vice versa?
I just deleted my last post, cause i realized that the main post has the answer for that question . i was just kinda confused :)
What hands in villain range are u value betting AQ, KQ, AK against? I dont think u have a very clear value with these hands. I think we have just around 7 value combos against a pretty good player as u said before, if u bet something around 1/3 ( stronger range, smaller bet) u need to have something like 25% of bluffs or 3 combos more or less. I think my loads are correct please tell me.
Yea, while whipping up all of my combos I got to the river with I included KQ/AK in my value betting river range but in game I'm definitely checking back KQ and even AK most of the time since he's a good reg.
I still think AQ is a bet most of the time, though, since now there are more AK and KQ combos that villain might call with- especially if we use a proper smaller sizing.
Anyway i dont think that flatting pre A2s-A9s against a very good opponent is going to be a profitable spot ;-), so in this spot i think we are never going to have bluffs or at least 1 or 2 combos so betting small is the best option imo.
The ranges seem off in terms of the assumptions regarding value. For example, with semi deep stacks, and being OOP vs the btn (we also have to keep the BB in mind), can you actually have something like KJs, A9-A2:xx, AQo in a preflop flatting range? If the answer is no to any of that then the assumptions about the ranges are way off, making subsequent decisions very unhelpful.
You also made some assumptions about his X/Shove range being balanced when he might simply have too many nutted hands (an asymmetric range) that relegate our decision to how quickly we fold.
So as the poker gods would have it, I actually ran into a super similar and nearly identical situation within 24 hours of posting this.
SB: $757.68 (126.3 bb)
BB: $677.24 (112.9 bb)
UTG: $1,215.61 (202.6 bb)
MP: $597 (99.5 bb)
CO: $1,164.67 (194.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): $662.17 (110.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with As Qc
3 folds, Hero raises to $15, SB raises to $48, BB folds, Hero calls $33
Flop: ($102) Th Jh 4s (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($102) Kd (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $68, SB calls $68
River: ($238) 4d (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $119, SB raises to $641.68 and is all-in, Hero calls $427.17
Villain is a very good reg. I have no idea what he would take this line with nor do can I guess at how balanced he is with value and bluffs in this spot. But I do know that I'm at the top of my range and my hand doesn't block any Axhh he may be getting jiggy with. So does this look ok?
There are far less value combos that we lose to in his range now than in the previous hand, with the 4 pairing instead of the K.
He should have for value: slowplayed JJ, TT, 44, KK , 8 combos total, but he often bets flop or turn or cr either street, so let's say on average he has 4 boat combos played this way, AQ for the chop 9 combos, A4hh, 1 combo. So 14 value combos , 9 of which we chop, one we beat.
He should value bet all of these since we are capped to AQ, we are 4beting TT+ pre v high % of the time.
Made the calcs and are winning 175 $ vs this range and 80 $ vs 8 combos boats, 9 combos AQ, 1 combo A4hh, even if he would checkfolds all missed A2-A9hh.
So this is a clear call.
Very nice thread. Really like all of your HH posts UpUpAndAway.
Second HH I think is a bit differend since you are higher up in your range and villain is a bit more capped. Still pretty gross spot but I'd call as well.
Wouldn't AK,KQ be a better bluff catcher than AQ? Since he is repping a full house and the K is a better blocker?
I don't think so. Having AK/KQ only chops his boat combos down by 2 while we would now lose to his A4hh and AQ combos which may choose to play this way.
On the 1st hand, you say you have to defend 45% of your 41 river combos. Now,shouldnt you defend 45% of your bluffcatching+ hands? I think its wrong to count the bluffs we are betting,since we think we had an ok bluff,but of course we cant ever call the all in,so there is no exploiting possible (allways folding right). Is this right?
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