NL400 Bluff Catching Math Check
Posted by UpUpAndAway
Posted by UpUpAndAway posted in Mid Stakes
NL400 Bluff Catching Math Check
SB: $420.01 (105 bb)
BB: $2,098.28 (524.6 bb)
MP: $400 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $593.07 (148.3 bb)
BTN: $1,496.06 (374 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Ac Qh
MP raises to $12, Hero calls $12, 3 folds
Villain is a winning and aggro reg. He's very capable of applying heavy pressure vs capped ranges and seems fairly balanced.
Flop: ($30) Ts Jd Ks (2 players)
MP bets $20, Hero calls $20
Turn: ($70) 2c (2 players)
MP bets $46.66, Hero calls $46.66
River: ($163.32) Kc (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $100, MP raises to $321.34 and is all-in
So assuming villain is balanced on this river, which I believe he's going to be atleast more balanced than the average reg:
Villain risks $321 to win $163+$100+$321 = $321/$583 = 55% = A
So (1-A) = 45% which is the amount of river hands I have to call in order to not let him profit by jamming with any two cards.
I beleive my river betting range consists of the following:
JJ - 3 combos
TT - 3 combos
AQ - 16 combos
AK - 8 combos
KQs - 2 combos
KJs - 1 combo
A9ss-A2ss - 8 combos
Total river betting combos = 41 combos. One thing to note is that it appears my river betting frequency is super value heavy with 32/41 combos being for value. I realize that I should have around 18-20 bluffing combos on the river considering my range however I'm not sure how to balance this out considering that the board hits villain a bit harder than it hits me and I don't get to the river with many bluffs in general. Does this mean I should be value betting a stronger range?
So if (1-A) is 45% then I need to be calling with about 18 combos to his river checkraise:
JJ - 3 combos
TT - 3 combos
KJs - 1 combo
So I still need to find 11 more combos to call the river with. My next strongest hand is AQ so it appears I would need to play a mixed strategy with AQ's 16 total combos. So I could bet/fold the 4 combos of AsQx which blocks his AsXs river bluffing combos which would bring me to approximately the correct river defense frequency.
Please feel free to chime in about any of my math, assumptions, or the value-heavy range dilemma that I've run into on the river!
Loading 20 Comments...
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.
This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.