but these tables play rather fishy so I can't put it past villain to
jam a few random hands like 66,77.

Nah i think it`s more likely he donks something smallish like 70-140$ or x/c some % with 66,77,8x and shoves exactly 9x+, JT-QTs, ATdd, AQdd, KTdd, KQdd.

The board is dry so he doesnt need to raise sets or 2p+ vs your perceived range and hell defo give up a lot and x/f with missed oe, ocs + bdfd or raise turn decent % of the time, also doesnt help that you block a some of those.He also can have a bunch of 9x with these stats, so should be a pretty easy fold on this card.

Thanks for the reply SPrince.

These types of spots get me in trouble quite often in-game since I feel like I'm making a lot of assumptions on what a relatively unknown villain could arrive at the river with AND play the way that it did. I'll try to take a better crack at this hand away from the table now:

I'm calling $234 to win $324+234+234 = 29.5% equity needed in order to breakeven. So I need him to have atleast ~30% bluffs in his range.

His value range could contain 33,88,99,98s,T9s,J9s,A9s for 3+3+1+2+2+1+2 combos = 14 total value combos that COULD, but don't ALWAYS, donk jam river. There's a decent chance he continues to check the river to me so I'm going to estimate he only donk jams the river 50% of the time with that range for 7 total value combos and continues to give me the lead with the rest.

So I need him to be jamming atleast 2 bluff combos on the river in order for my call to breakeven. Some possible low-showdown hands he COULD arrive at the river with but not ALWAYS bluff are AQdd, ATdd, QTdd, maybe KQdd, JTcc, and JThh for let's say 5.5 combos since I'm unsure every villain check/calls KQdd on the flop. I think AQdd checks the river with a bit of showdown value a large majority of the time which leaves 4.5 combos of hands that might possibly donk the river as a bluff.

My guess would be that villain is donking the river a bit under 50% of the time since it's a line I don't see very often and I'm getting pretty decent odds so I would think villain is donk bluffing 1-2 combos which should make my river call very, very close. When it's this close, I have an overpair vs a strange donk, and villain is an anonymous player with stats that are loose over a small sample on a site with many fish, I think it's ok to err on the side of calling the river here given the odds.

Please let me know if I missed anything and what you would disagree with, if anything!

if this is bovada, i have not idea. you get such different stuff from different players. some players, like myself, wud jam a decent range of bluffs here. but others may not directly realize its a great card for them and jam just when they have a 9, because they have a 9 and dont want you to check back. but then again, its bovada, and ppl spaz for unknown reasons as well.

I play anonymous and I pretty much agree with your assessment, up. It's really close and a very polarized situation. If he's gotten out of line at all during this session, spewed or bluffed, been fishy, i'm probably calling.

33,88,99,98s,T9s,J9s,A9s

I think he can definitely have 55, 86s, Q9-K9s, A9o + some slowplays with KK-AA (i gave him 1/3 of those combos) as well, and did you mean to put 77 instead of 88 ?

Anyways if we give him this range : 99,77,55,33,AdAh,AhAs,AhAc,KdKh,A9s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s,86s,A9o, that already bumps his value range to 35 combos.

I agree KT,KQ,ATdd are somewhat less likely but i really doubt hes jamming low-mid pps.So his most natural bluffs would be JTs-QTs, and even if he jams them 100% it`s not enough.You basically need to add all combos of 66, 88 and assume he jams them 100% to justify calling.

Yea I think this spot is very close with the ranges you selected. But I think that you gave him a pretty tight call 3-bet range, if villain is sticky with hands like K9s, Q9s, or J9s pre then he has a larger value range then you are giving him credit for and it becomes an easier fold.