nl400 aces cold4b pre
Posted by sweet16
Posted by
sweet16
posted in
Mid Stakes
nl400 aces cold4b pre
SB: $725.80
BB: $1120.85 (Hero)
UTG: $446.30
MP: $282.60
CO: $160.00
I got no reads on either of the players, both are regs however fwiw. Pre and flop seems quite standard to me, the interesting part is turn and river. What do you think about checking turn here with this hand? Like AA really crushes his range here and he's most likely drawing dead pretty much drawing dead or to 2 outs here always. If he got KQss or A-high it's seems like a good spot to give him a free card to let him "catch up" (Him hitting a K/Q/A on the river is rly golden since he probably will bet and we will jam and win his whole stack) or potentially induce some bluff on the river. My range looks really strong if I bet turn here imo, and I need no protection at all with this hand. My plan was to check turn and jam everytime he bets on the river. It also makes me less vulnerable as a range play I guess if I got these type of hands to back up the weaker part of my range. However this isn't really a major concern for me when playing readless etc, we should probably just go for the best vacuum play which I believe to be a check turn in this case.
The other part of the hand is the river, what should we size as played? I went for a small-ish sizing to target his range that seems to consist of a bunch of bluffcatchers pretty much.
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I like the line as played. I'm just thinking about maybe sizing the river bet a little bigger against his bluff catching range. I don't think we induce folds with say 235 here versus half pot if he has a full house. Also, yeah our range has what it has in it but we are going to also show up here with air a fair bit too and would arguably want to bluff this card as it hits us much better than him.
Not that I mind your line at all as a mix up play once in a while, but if we're talking about our play in a vacuum here then I think betting turn and betting river is almost certainly a better play when you're ahead a super high % of the time.
You have a pretty nice range advantage on the turn and should likely be firing more barrels with your weak Ahigh and Khigh bluffs so villain should defintely be calling turn with atleast 18 combos of his range (TT-QQ) which may also feel forced to call many rivers. This is why I don't agree that checking turn is better in a vacuum since you're forgoing some significant value of betting the turn and river with the top of your range in hopes of picking up more value than that forgone from his rare KQss or Ax(which you double block) hand that might improve.
As played I likely bet the river pretty large ($220ish) since you're polarized to Kx or a bluff (or AA ;)).
i agree about betting the turn. Since the turn didn't really change much, it's very likely they're going to call the turn just as they did the flop. I think OP missed value by not betting the turn.
Yeah, betting is for sure better in a vacuum by thinking of it. Btw KQss and Ax was still just example of hands that's always folding turn btw, it wasn't like I wanted to induce exactly those hands. But by thinking of it he probably doesn't got that many airish combos in this spot. I'm just concerned I will get a lot of folds in a vacuum when we're almost 200bb deep and I take this line... But it's probably not the case
larger probably looks a little more bluffy. AK or Kx is in your range so obv want him to think we're betting on the scare card and either look us up with ace high or try to steal with a shove.
I think you're losing a lot of value by not betting the turn here. Your main priority should be to get full stacks in, and the best way to do so it to bet twice. Hoping for him to river a pair and then bet/call seems like a pretty unlikely scenario. My guess is that whatever EV you gain in those instances (river X, he bets, you shove) cannot possibly outweigh the value you lose by not getting bets in now. It should be much more important to get bets in vs TT-QQ at this point, than to let his few combos of unpaired hands catch up. A further downside of checking compared to betting is that he probably won't fold TT-QQ to a bet now, but if the river is a Q/K/A he might end up folding (or calling a smaller bet, i.e. not getting stacks in).
It would be different if you had one PSB left on the turn, in which case getting stacks in would not be a problem. But going to the river with 2 PSB behind here can't be that good. And sure, it looks strong to two barrel here but it's super plausible for you to be bluffing with this line also. You have the range advantage, and stacks behind. It's very easy for you to find a bluff with AQ, KQ, QJs or whatever, given that you can threaten his stack with further betting by just putting in $120-160 on the turn. (Not to mention that you obviously should be bluffing here a lot in theory as well). It's not like checking back and shoving over a bet, or 2x potting the river would look less strong either.
Agree with @Up, since this spot will come up once in 30k hands not looking to balance or be tricky at all, just go for max value.
Yeah, this spot is kinda meh to think about since it never will come up. I usefully don't look at these kind of spots, luckily I didn't waste time in crev / equilab at least... =)
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