NL30 QQ facing river overbet shove
Posted by dpl0415
Posted by
dpl0415
posted in
Low Stakes
NL30 QQ facing river overbet shove
Blinds: $0.15/$0.30 (5 Players)
UTG: $31.06
CO: $48.63
BN: $7.79
SB: $32.03 (Hero)
BB: $44.50
CO: $48.63
BN: $7.79
SB: $32.03 (Hero)
BB: $44.50
Preflop
($0.45)
Hero is SB with
Q
Q
, ,
Villain to this point is 32/24/7 over 70ish hands to this point and was fairly aggressive overall, so I think we can rule out JJ+, AK and discount other big aces and possibly TT and 99 as well.
Flop
($1.80)
9
6
2
, ,
At this point my thought was a range of sets, possibly 96s, 87, and good top pairs like Q9+ (and some TT if he isn't 3b all of them pre). Also possibly some other air like 54s, 75s, T8s, etc. I opted not to 3b to let him keep barreling his bluff/semibluffs and maybe his 9s, and also if he 4bs here I'm pretty much always dead and idk if he continues his A9 type hands against a 3b. Open to feedback here.
Turn
($5.76)
9
6
2
2
, ,
The 2 seems like a pretty good card for me. I doubt he's raising a deuce on the flop here so now I beat 96s and 22 is less likely. Again, I saw no reason to raise here, but open to feedback.
River
($12.98)
9
6
2
2
7
, ,
Sick bet by him on the river here. He's very much uncapped and I'm capped and he takes full advantage here. I'm pretty sure the only value hands for him here 99, 66, and 22 which makes 7 combos unless he's going absolutely nuts with TT. I think there's a chance he might get here with like 96s or 87 and decide to go for the big bluff, but I question how often he thinks the pool will fold against this bet here and how often he pulls the trigger with those when he gets here with them.
I felt like my hand was very face up here and in the moment I felt like he was fully expecting to get called here. I need to win ~40% of the time to break even, so I think this was a good fold, but I still have nagging doubts. Any feedback is greatly appreciated!
I felt like my hand was very face up here and in the moment I felt like he was fully expecting to get called here. I need to win ~40% of the time to break even, so I think this was a good fold, but I still have nagging doubts. Any feedback is greatly appreciated!
Final Pot
BB wins $12.33
Rake is $0.65
Rake is $0.65
Loading 4 Comments...
Welcome to the forums
The spot is a gross one to be in and I don't expect to make a ton of money in the long run even if we are ahead a bunch of the times.
I would open up my HUD and look for post flop raises, even if you don't have a meaningful sample. If he raised cbets or bets in general more than a couple of times when he had the chance to, I lean toward calling this hand down, if not I would fold.
Where do you play nl30 btw?
Seems alright, just because it such a big bet I don't mind folding river and calling A9/K9 I have on the river. If he is a rec, I'm calling this one instead of A9/K9 and overpair in general preferred
Good analysis and everything but yeah u cant expect ppl to think that much in the microstakes and go for bluffs with 96 and 87.Your theory is on point so is mine but sadly its useless way of thinkin vs this type of players on low stakes.Poker would be 100x more times fun to play if opponents think like that and find creative bluffs sadly that never happens and its always the stone nuts.But if u are rly in hero call mode call with 9x and 6x instead
Thanks for the advice. Good point about A9/K9 being better bluff catchers here against a good opponent, hadn't thought about that but it makes sense. He has only raised over a cbet this time out of a sample of 4, so not much to go off of but he's not blasting away every time. Playing on Pokerstars PA btw.
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