NL25z: SBvBB 3bp weird spot.
Posted by Nate Rotten Tomatoes
Posted by
Nate Rotten Tomatoes
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25z: SBvBB 3bp weird spot.
SB: $56.77 (Hero)
BB: $27.18
UTG: $58.96
MP: $38.20
CO: $37.23
Pre: I don't like having flatting range SB if not fish BB, pretty standard 3b for me SBvMP. Then the villain(BB) flatted.
Villain: 20/15/13 and has no 4b stat (0/5) in 134 samples. He plays very aggressively in 3bp.
Flop: I figured I'm very ahead or very behind(JJ+/AJs) so I didn't see any reason to Cbet, and there will be bunch of hands I'm gonna check in this board after 3b pre. I also expect villain to bet most of his range OTF once I check.
Turn: XC. I dont see anything else.
River: I do not think he can value bet AJ/QQ like this. One of major bluff got here (KQs). And sizing seems pretty solid. However, given the villain's aggressiveness. I think he may play hand like AQ this way too. I think my range shud look like AK QQ to him.
Is it standard XF OTR? or XC.
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I think it's a fold.
It's a good runout for your perceived range, so I don't expect that many bluffs.
Also, as you said, KQ got there, which is like the most obv bluff,
and the only reasonable bluffs that I can think of are AQdd/cc and AJdd (3 total),
which is just not enough imo.
Like, if he never plays AJs/QQ like this, and always bluffs the mentioned combos, then it's a call (we have 33% vs ~25 req), but he can sometimes + we can also run into slowplayed AA/KK at times, so I'd say it's a b/e call at best. His sizing also screams 'pls call me'
I think we have to fold turn. Villains range is simply tok strong. And I'm not convinced about your pre play given the fact raising doesn't make MP fold KQs, AJs. KJs flops only mediocre hands which is undesirable oop
Thank you taaazz/cais16.
Folding turn cud also be the option; but considering the dynamics between me and the villain, KJ was too high in my flop XC range that I cudn't fold.
In game, I did end up calling but surprised the strong hand villain showed up; AdKd and I didn't rly like the call after seeing that cause that was a very strong hand; and whether my call in the long run in this spot is +EV or not was very questionable. And even in game, I did assign KK+ to villain's range since that seemed like how villain balances his aggressiveness in 3b postflop.
In game, i assigned all AQ combos to the villain.
So my initial idea (which I didnt ofc calculate in game but my thoughts) was like this
Equity Win Tie
SB 48.48% 48.48% 0.00% KsJs
BB 51.52% 51.52% 0.00% KK+, JJ-TT, AQs, KQs, JTs, AQo
What taaazz came up was roughly like this (and given what villain showed up, following range fits better)
Equity Win Tie
SB 30.00% 30.00% 0.00% KsJs
BB 70.00% 70.00% 0.00% JJ-TT, KQs, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc
Which is the result assuming that
1. AJs/QQ is not making 3 street value bet
2. KK+ will 4b pre but villain has no 4b record in 138 samples. So he likely has it more often.
if 1/2 kicks in to factors, then its -EV or b/e call for sure.
taaazz
I think this may potentially be one of my major leak so I really want to ask;
(In your experience)
1. Is it too wide to assign all AQ(suited and offsuits) combos to aggressive opponents in this spot?
2. Would such aggressive opponents make thin 3-street value bet with AJs/QQ?
No problem, man.
Like, ideally, he'd want to have the combos of AQo w/ no club and diamond in it, which is just 2c (the less he has, the more pairs w/ blockers in Villain's range, so we can expect more FE this way - blocking bluffs is not good for bluffcatching, right?)
But yeah, obv we can't model the perfect range - what we can do is make our best guess and go from there.
2. Doubt it, i mean, on this runout, what does he expect to get called by?
I'm not even sure if KK is a vbet otr tbh. :p
You can actually do this the other way.
Like, if he calls AA pre sometimes (say 1/3 of the time), his river vbetting range would look more or less like this:
{JJ-TT,AdAh,AdAc,KdQd,KcQc} - 10 combos
So, if his vbetting range is 9-10c, and you need 25%, you need his range to have ~3 bluff combos.
AQdd/AKdd/AQcc - 3
But then again, he might 4b AK, vbet more thinly, not bluff w/ bFD + OvC etc.
Yeah, so all that said, I think this spot is very marginal, but from my experience, we're behind way too often here to make the call.
*All that said, I certainly don't feel qualified enough to give you the ultimate anwser.
I'd actually love to see some pro help us out here!
Thank you very much taaazz for in-depth review :)
It took more than half an hour to understand and implement it myself; it s a good stuff to study and develop my game.
I agree its a marginal spot and fold seems slightly better (and I think ill assign KK in his vbet range too; simply cause my stat wud look pretty stationy 3bp OTR which I have to admit my leak).
And choosing selective vbetting range OTR with AA; was a part I learned a lot. (AdAx/AcAx). Since not having Diamond/Club with AA simply makes the SB range more polarized.
"Like, ideally, he'd want to have the combos of AQo w/ no club and diamond in it, which is just 2c (the less he has, the more pairs w/ blockers in Villain's range, so we can expect more FE this way - blocking bluffs is not good for bluffcatching, right?)"
This is the part I'm still having struggle.
First of all, I have to say that even the aggressive villain is not going too get out of line w/ all AQ every time.
But he(aggressive one) might choose some;
So when we assume that he wants to bluff with some of AQ (not the obvious ones AdQd, AcQc).
I assume 'Villain' in the context is myself; the hero.
OTF, I think myself(SB) here will check most of QQ for balance.
However, if I wanted to check;
I'd choose to check my QdQx(3 combos) cause I block FD. And I'd bet other 3 combos of QQ to charge him from draws. <- I have one more question here, if this is the right play. Or shud it be the other way around?
So OTR, in villain(BB)'s perspective, if SB have taken XC/XC line; SB cud still have QdQx.
If BB has AQ w/ no diamond or club (2c as you said, AsQh/AhQs), SB can still have QdQx.
-> Less FD.
If BB has sth like AxQd, SB cannot have QdQx.
-> More FD.
Similar example, if I(SB) wanted to bet some AA and check some AA OTF.
I(SB) would check AdAx (3 combos) and bet rest of AA (another 3)
If villain(BB) has AQ w/ no diamond, SB can sill have AdAx.
-> Less FD.
If villain(BB) has AdQx, SB cannot have AdAx.
-> More FD.
So villain shud be less inclined to bluff w/ AQ that has no diamond or club in it.
Am I following you correctly?..
I'm very sorry for the long post; and u already helped me a lot with this subject.
I completely understand if u choose not to answer it (even if I was you, I would be bothered)
But I really want to improve my game...
I'd fold the turn. Its not that I know what he has, but the absence of information that makes this a fold. We are folding roughly 26% of the time on the turn if we fold our top pair hands. If we don't fold our top pair hands we fold roughly 12% of the time.
We don't know very much about his range/strategy so this spot makes an excellent candidate for GTO play. Since GTO play is going to try to make his bluffs indifferent to bluffing and calling 87% of the time makes them clearly negative, folding KJs here is correct.
Here's the link to the CREV sim.
CREV sim
HI Tyler,
might you please explain this a little bit? I have no CREV.
Villain bets here 50% of the pot, so, do we not to defent here (MDF) around 50% of our floprange?
Hi Zoty,
The flop defense frequency is based on how strong his range is compared to our range. We can't know the right fold frequency on the flop without some assumptions about range distribution. On the turn though we can conclude that folding 12% of the time is bad strategy because IP check flush draw >>>>> IP Bet flush draw. This should be false. The two values should be roughly equal.
Hi Tyler,
thanks for your answer. I am still a little bit confused. That means, if we would have flushdraws in our range, we would bet them? And for this flushdraws we need the right amount of Valuhands? So we would call here AJ, and overpairs, if we have a few for rangeprotection. So KJ as a Top-pair hand is too much in this spot as TP callinghand, as you mentiond in your post?
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