[NL25z] ridiculous hand
Posted by _michael_
Posted by
_michael_
posted in
Low Stakes
[NL25z] ridiculous hand
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $42.75 (Hero)
SB: $37.26
BB: $49.68
UTG: $22.35
MP: $41.82
CO: $25.00
SB: $37.26
BB: $49.68
UTG: $22.35
MP: $41.82
CO: $25.00
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BN with
T
A
, , ,
Flop
($1.86)
T
T
A
, , , , , ,
Turn
($9.36)
T
T
A
8
, , , ,
River
($30.36)
T
T
A
8
2
, ,
Final Pot
BN wins $28.99
Rake is $1.37
Rake is $1.37
Really weird hand, probably not too much point reviewing as it was a rare spot.
Flop I look strong coldcalling the 3b, but raising looks super strong as well, and I wouldn't want to bluffraise. I would also call with Tx and strong FDs (Khi or QJ) and AK.
Turn I I think all flushes and Tx call my raise, and I want to build pot with deep stacks. I could bluff with AK with Kc but I'm not sure I actually pull the trigger here.
River I think the club is a horrible card for him and he has no boats aside from possibly T8. I think I should have sized down? I am hoping to be called by Kc and even that could fold for PSB. I definitely have no bluffs, a solver would have to put tiny % of some weird hands into this line to bluff.
Loading 7 Comments...
Kc with a J, 9 or Q that is blocking Tx would be a viable bluff.
I like the line. Might be able to raise the flop as well though. Might not get credit for our hand and he might spazz out with a combo draw.
Turn I like the raise. It's unlikely BB ever folds any hand here against our raise, thinking his Tx has outs for a full house. That his flush might be beating your Tx etc. Sizing also seems nice to setup river jam.
Well played
I like everything till turn, but I dont see what youre getting called by OTR with that sizing. I assume BB wont click it back OTF with a FD that often multiway, but that its more often a strong Tx trying to not fold out your toppair. Now if that holds true, counting his combos, he has 2 combos of ATo you chop with, 12 combos of trips of which 3 combos have rivered a flush (KcTd, QcTd, JcTd).
If I bet something like 8 and assume all of his trips call that, we have around the same EV (maybe like 2% more, so negligible) as betting large hoping to get those calls by the rivered flushes. Admittedly, I thought were gonna be off better, hence why I started to break it down. But what it does not account for is the fact that your opponent can reraise in this spot to get value from worse flushes you raised OTT. And I dont think its unreasonable to assume that someone raises a rivered nut flush here on that board (or even second nut flush) so the EV would go up to at least 52 in comparison to jam, where its 44.
Thanks very interesting analysis and I like your sizing on any club river. It also protects my thinner value, I can bet this sizing with Kc myself and possibly bluff.
I agree he could easily have folded a Ten with a club that I should have got value from.
My plan on the turn was to set up river jam and I didn't reconsider it enough.
A little mistake on my part - the total EV wont be 52, but something along of 48-49 (so for a 10% increase in EV compared to jam), since I didnt properly remove the one KcTd combo from the small bet percentage above if he would raise his nut flush (screen shows 86% + 14% + 7%, which is 107%. It should be 79%, 14%, 7% for a total of 100%)
Turn raise is too big, better off just calling if you are going to raise that big. I know your both 150+bb and you want to get it in but the ev difference is significant.
EV difference based on what?
How he's supposed to get his stack if he's not raising the size OTT?
Based on Snowie.
Why does he needs to get his stack in? Cause he has the nuts and hes deep? We talking about ranges here and not transparent nut peddling bet sizes. Villain can raise worse/bluff river if we make smaller bet sizes, plus we can overbet jam river. All the worse boats are calling but if you make it so transparent then your just going to make all the weak flushes fold.
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