NL25z OOP 3b pot, OTR value jam or explo fold?
Posted by downflux01
Posted by downflux01 posted in Low Stakes
NL25z OOP 3b pot, OTR value jam or explo fold?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $52.52
SB: $27.68
BB: $104.03 (Hero)
UTG: $25.00
MP: $32.99
CO: $34.66
SB: $27.68
BB: $104.03 (Hero)
UTG: $25.00
MP: $32.99
CO: $34.66
Opponent is a reg, no other information
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
K
Q
, , , ,
BBvMP, KQs is included as a 3b for me and I sized up, as were a bit deeper than 100bb
Flop
($6.12)
7
T
7
,
Probably a board we can allow ourselves to cbet entire range, since im also 3betting 78s/76s in this spot or TT PF, we should have the advantage
Turn
($10.16)
7
T
7
K
,
Getting value from draws and few weaker Kx, some strong Tx
River
($22.82)
7
T
7
K
3
, ,
In game, I didnt feel to good about pulling this value bet through, since there isnt too much worse wed get called by. I would expect hes capable to arrive here also with slowplayed 7x. On the other hand, check folding here feels pretty stupid. I looked at the solver solution and it had 16 EV for betting and 6 for X/C.. but with the X/C, it also lets the opponent bluff with every sort of missed hand (AsQx, AQs, FDs, 98s, QJs..), and I see some of those but not all.. am I just overthinking and it should be a jam, or maybe something in between (like betting 30% to get calls from Tx as well, folding to raise mostly)?
Final Pot
MP wins $22.82
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