NL25z BvB facing triple barrel with TPWK
Posted by downflux01
Posted by
downflux01
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25z BvB facing triple barrel with TPWK
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $25.00
SB: $71.61 (Hero)
BB: $28.81
UTG: $48.89
MP: $40.50
CO: $25.00
SB: $71.61 (Hero)
BB: $28.81
UTG: $48.89
MP: $40.50
CO: $25.00
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is SB with
9
5
, ,
Flop
($1.26)
7
3
9
, ,
Im generally playing a 100% checking strategy OOP, but otherwise probably also wouldnt bet it due to the weak kicker.
Im giving BB sets (33, 77 maybe sometimes), 9x, strong 7x (like Q7s, K7s, A7s) and apart from that enough draws that could also be betting here (54s, 65s, 68s,T8s, J8s, JTs).
Im giving BB sets (33, 77 maybe sometimes), 9x, strong 7x (like Q7s, K7s, A7s) and apart from that enough draws that could also be betting here (54s, 65s, 68s,T8s, J8s, JTs).
Turn
($2.92)
7
3
9
7
, ,
Per our line, I dont see what he would be betting big here for value too often. 99 3b pre in his shoes, the turn OTT makes it less likely for him to have 77 and he has 3 combos of 33. Mainly his stronger 7x that bet flop could have improved, but he still has a bunch of draws he can barrel. I dont see something like A9 or K9 betting big here
River
($7.32)
7
3
9
7
4
, ,
56s maybe got there and we block that, but other than that it seems like a blank. Not sure though if this is a proper bluffcatcher, maybe having a facecard like K/A would be better to block some of his stronger 7x?
What would you consider bluff catching with here?
Loading 6 Comments...
I like calling this down. Seems well played.
We don't block JT, 8T, 86, J8 clubs and are blocking 9x, 56.
I agree, this makes a lot of sense to bluffcatch with. We don't want to call turn and fold unscary river with a hand that can't improve. Blockers mean 95 is better to call with than 98 or T9 or low-mid club kicker. I think 5 is the best low kicker we can have, a 6 would be more neutral as it blocks 86 and 65.
We definitely need to fold some 9s here and I wouldn't mind folding this one, but a call is reasonable.
You think they play a 9x like that or check it OTT more often? Im asking because of the blocker effect, because if we dont give him that, id imagine bluffcatching with 3x and high cards is better (to block potential stronger 7x that can bet OTF like that), no?
Other than that, do you see arguments to cbet such a holding in a non-checking strategy?
Some villains will bet more 9x than others on the turn. I am expecting A9/K9 to follow through like this sometimes. Given the sizing I think we can discount some middling 9x as I expect them to ch or bet smaller on the river, and some villains will never bet this big with any 9. So the main benefit to having a 9 as a blocker is blocking A9, 97 and 99 (some villains flat it preflop here, though I expect it being 3b).
I am expecting to see lots of 7x from villain, but he possibly has all the T8 86 and many spade combos. In these situations where there are many valuebets and many possible bluffs and we are capped it is best to assume that he is somewhat balanced, call with our better blocking bluffcatchers and fold our worse ones. We may have enough calls with eg A9 K9 Q9 particularly no club without needing 95, but 95 is a much better call than other weak 9x.
Do you have any overpairs in this line? I would raise lots of them on flop or turn so I guess not. Are you ever raising A9 or K9 on the flop?
I think he can possibly have 7x from 75 to A7, it's hard to know where unknown draws the line for unsuited combos, so I am not too concerned about blocking specific 7x. Any of his 7x could justify betting the flop to protect equity against overcards and draws, and I am expecting all 7x he has to go for value around this size on the river.
Yes I can see argument for cbetting it 1/2pot to protect our equity and get some value, I am cbetting it sometimes.
I feel like 95s is a bit loose to open from SB without particular reads - but maybe I'm a nit??
I think on the flop you could find a smallish bet to protect your equity. Villain has a couple of overcards like QT that he would probably fold, which wouldn't be too bad. I feel like checking puts you in an awkward spot - note that this is one of the better runouts and you're not too happy.
The river spot is interesting. At first thought I would argue that population doesn't bluff this line often enough. But on a second though I guess they are also not value-betting enough of their 9x range, so it distorts their range towards bluffs.
I do not mind folding this river.. if you play a checking range OTF - your range is not capped.
I would look at it from a perspective how is our range perceive. Especially after the turn bet.. we have a ton of 9x hands and even better. That said people are not going to fold the 9x on the river, so it seems that it could be his value target. His sizing (OTT and OTR) says everything.
Generally it is more value heavy and it is not hard to guess that he is trying to get a value from a hand which we actually hold.
Like really what hands except of FDs are going to call the large bet OTT with intention to fold on the blank river?
Note: I know that my analysis is not great, however, my intention was to point out possible thinking process which could your opponent use.
Be the first to add a comment