NL25z BvB 3b with overpair facing X/R OTF
Posted by downflux01
Posted by
downflux01
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25z BvB 3b with overpair facing X/R OTF
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $34.47
SB: $25.42
BB: $33.89 (Hero)
UTG: $34.87
MP: $27.92
CO: $18.94
SB: $25.42
BB: $33.89 (Hero)
UTG: $34.87
MP: $27.92
CO: $18.94
Not too many reads, SB is a reg and we have been playing a enough hands to know about each others aggressive tendencies
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
A
A
, , ,
Sized down a BB for AA, go ahead and bash me for being exploitable
Flop
($4.00)
2
8
J
, , ,
He has 22 or 88, but Im discounting some JJ combos and expecting those to be 4b most of the times pre. Other than that, I see him protection raising with some strong Jx toppairs, twopairs maybe like J8s (if he flats that pre) and bluffs like QTs, T9s or KTs with backdoor FDs.
Turn
($11.02)
2
8
J
8
,
Great turn, reduces the combos of sets, so he has like 4 nut combos now that he can bet that way or his openenders/gutshots.
River
($20.28)
2
8
J
8
K
,
I dont see people bluffing it off here too much, but the main argument I found to be calling here is that he still can have KJ that we have beat. And if he only has two combos of that here next to the nut combos I mentioned, the SPR would make it a call.
Loading 5 Comments...
Seems good, decent logic. Well played.
Seems fine to me, I assume you lost the hand. I don't like the size down with AA pre.
There is only 3 22, 1 88, 1 J8s, up to 3 JJ, I am not folding AA here. Some of his value could x/r turn, and JJ could x/c flop a lot, so some of his value may be in different lines. If he is bad he can have KJ with this line, if he has bluffs (eg T9s) then it is a call. We could fold river against some villains but I am calling without extra info.
We have many worse hands like QQ and AJs and we shouldn't fold all of these. Our only better hands are JJ and KK so we are folding far too much if we only continue with those 6 combos.
If he is somehow raising flop with some random 8Xs then that sucks but oh well, the SPR was 1.5 when the second 8 came. If he is doing that then he probably has some random straight draw bluffs too.
Yup, lost it - he had KK
Raising 8x can be done against smaller size cbets. It shouldn't be uncommon. But yeah, we have to call this down.
Snowie is showing a 0 ev call 80/20 fold/call, which means in practice its a fold. I know your instincts and theory tell you gatta call top of my range low spr villain can have worst blah blah blah, but the AI thats played trillions of hands thinks this spot is neutral which means the troglodytes clicking buttons at your stake won't have the brain power to construct a range to make your AA here 0ev and only show up with better, including a random 8x which should never be raising.
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