NL25z Bluffing MP on one-card straight board
Posted by downflux01
Posted by
downflux01
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25z Bluffing MP on one-card straight board
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $49.77 (Hero)
SB: $25.00
BB: $27.37
UTG: $25.00
MP: $24.65
CO: $25.17
SB: $25.00
BB: $27.37
UTG: $25.00
MP: $24.65
CO: $25.17
Unknown
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BN with
J
6
, , ,
Flop
($1.36)
Q
9
T
, , ,
Probably a board you shouldnt be cbetting as often for small sizing, but I assume pop is overfolding enough PPs, which makes it okay. After a raise, I give him mostly made straights (KJ, J8s) and twopairs, not so much sets due to PF action, also some stronger Qx maybe like KQ. Also I would argue it is probably an underbluffed board overall, since one can expect enough continues here and less fold equity. Vs that range I believe when I looked it up, we got somewhat better EQ than odds offered, so I like the call
Turn
($4.26)
Q
9
T
J
, ,
I think this is a great card for us, it reduces the KJ/J8s combos and overall we will have some continues with Kx, so that we will have turned a straight. My SDV here is basically non existent and if I were to bluff with a hand, I would prefer a hand that unblocks twopair while making it unlikely that he has flopped a made straight, so Im betting here already planning to barrel OTR
River
($9.02)
Q
9
T
J
5
, ,
OTR, Im betting to fold out two pairs.
Loading 5 Comments...
Looks fine played but things to consider - on the turn you have worse combos to bluff (Tx,9x)
-you can size up slightly bigger on the flop and turn (because your value range Kx/sets and 8x not betting turn ''ever'') Most common holding in your range is AK which wants to put stacks.
Main concern on the river that he doesn't hold too many 2 pairs (quite splashy strategy to raise every 2 pair on the flop), so his range either 8x? (J8/A8,, I dont know); some 2 pairs (not many) and turned fds.
p.s. pio plays it is a bet/call flop, mostly turn bet and check river and using only shove size for value. (bluffs some amount of Jx/9x/Tx and 9 or T being most frequent ones)
I think at 25nl they raise almost every 2 pair on the flop tbh. Memory is hazy because it's been a while but from what I can remember calling ranges were incredibly capped in every spot.
I think you should at least check your assumption that pop overfolds to the small sizing on this board, they have very automatic defends with any Jx and Kx with a backdoor flushdraw is also a pretty intuitive find so I don't think that people are going to miss too much of the continue range here. They only need to do some low frequency calling with Kx no bdfd, Ax bdfd and underpairs to the board which maybe people will just fold here but that's not a massive mistake and I'm honestly not confident that it will happen because people love a 1 street float with ace high at low stakes and folding a pair on the flop is pretty much blasphemy to a lot of people especially vs the small sizing.
All that being said I like the way the hand is played, your SDV is still essentially 0 when you pair up and you've got on of your lowest equity hands on the turn so it's definitely right to bluff this at some frequency and it gets even better when you think that villains don't recognise that they should check their entire range on the J turn as they might continue to barrel some Kx or raise too much of it giving them no river calls. Something interesting that you get to do on these turns is semi bluff your sets. Basically you bet them and occasionally get floated by a worse hand which you can beat at showdown by checking back river and sometimes you boat up to stack a king.
With regards to river play, your sizing is fine for most of your bluffs and Kx but you should also incorporate a jam sizing with some Kx all your AK and then a low frequency with your bluffs but the Kx kind of functions as a semi bluff where you're jamming it expecting to chop a lot but it's to make their Kx indifferent to calling the jam because they sometimes take the whole pot vs a bluff, chop a lot of the time and then get stacked by your AK so they can't cheat and fold their straights to the jam knowing that you only jam in your AK here. Also villain can unexploitably fold some 2 pair on the turn so depending on the type of villain you're up against they could have run out of hands to fold by this node and you might be running into just Kx and should give up with all your bluffs as an exploit.
Considering overfolding: I meant more in the region of PPs below the board, Im expecting a reasonable amount of calls with BW cards.
The set value bet makes sense, thanks!
Would you incorporate this into the overbet bluffing range OTR? I mean on one hand, we make it less likely for him to call by blocking the KJ combos and unblock two pair, but at the same time, we would want him to have KJ if we get here with AK.
Yeah the thing is though if you remove 88 which is a fairly natural continue then they only need to continue 35% of their underpairs according to my sim so yeah some people will fold all of them but also some people will call all of them meaning that it's more a specific exploit to a person than something you can confidently say will generally exploit the population.
The set isn't a value bet it's just that on the river you can check back and win something like 15% of the time so sometimes you do pick up the pot whereas you have hands like this with 0% showdown value that make better bluffs.
In terms of overbet vs regular sizing I can't really see a pattern that would be easy to internalise because it's just mixing with everything and people probably won't notice it if you don't do it so it's not too big an issue. It's more relevant for when you're calling down in these spots if you see that someone has 2 sizings on the river and you realise that their bigger sizing might be exclusively AK because they don't want to just jam a king and chop when they could bet smaller to maybe get some value and they also don't want to bluff when they run into a straight so often so maybe you can make some hero folds if you have a good read. Basically I don't think it's important to get a spot like this technically correct on your end but the conceptual understanding of what someone needs to do to make you indifferent to calling on these 4 straight boards if they do want to jam their nut straights is important because it can let you get away from it if they play too face up on rivers especially at deeper sprs where they might be jamming something like 5x the pot.
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