NL25z AQs calldown aginst unknown
Posted by 1BuckPlease
Posted by
1BuckPlease
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25z AQs calldown aginst unknown
SB: $23.75
BB: $25.63
UTG: $57.29
MP: $21.98
CO: $25.00 (Hero)
V is unknown, only hint was his stack size, which leaded me to think I am playing against a fishy player. I think we can make a profitable calldown here. If we think in a general 3b range from BU (maybe: 66+, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+), after his flop half pot bet IP, we can exclude some hands. IMO, he will usually checkback his stronger PP-s, like 99-JJ, his Qx or Kx hands and bet with straight draws, airs and strong hands. OTT I give him this range: QQ+,ATs+,KQs,JTs,T9s,AKo, he will usually give up his airs. OTR, there is no significant change in his range. We are blocking KQ, AK, AA, QQ from his value range, but with our Ace also blocking his AJ, AT. But all in all, we are probably talking about a fish, who just sees his two cards, does not give a... anything to ranges, just clicking halfpothalfpotpot. So what do you think about this spot? If my range is right, OTR we have 38% against QQ+,ATs+,KQs,JTs,AKo w 27% potodds.
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The problem is with this line of thinking is what kind of fish will barrel 3 times with air. There are a lot of AKo, KQo, KK and AA hands that make this play that beat you.
Given that he three bet preflop a lot of your estimated range are not that likely yes a fish might 3 bet 87s etc but not all fish do. Yes a fish might cBet on the flop almost a 100% which seems ok on a K-high board as the villain is supposed to have more K's in his range then you do, but then again some fish might not even cBet if they missed and some might not bet turn and some might not bet river.
Against some (maniac) fish calling all three streets is ok but most of the time you just burn money calling three streets with just second pair also consider that there are only gutshots available to him to continue barreling draws.
Yes I was overthinking it, you are right. Where is that point, when you click on the fold button?
Think turn is a good place to fold as you don't improve and villain kept betting.
On the river you want to see a queen even an A is an unsure card as villain could have AK.
He just has so many combos that crush you and there is a just a lack of bluffs on a board like this (JT is the only really solid high equity bluff available).
Assuming a very value dense range here, we should probably be folding on non club/Q turns. The price is good, but that doesn't matter when you are squashed here so often. Club turns, depending on which one, are going to improve your equity substantially.
Seems fine to me, nh
I agree with your analysis that this kind of stack indicates that villain is not fully proficient. In this kind of spot, I would prefer to err on the nitty side, although I do have to admit that NL25 seems to be more aggressive than the stakes below (I recently started playing NL25-regular tables, coming from below). I think I would find the fold button on the turn, given that the turn bet sets up the shove for the river.
One thing I wonder is the 3bet range that you give villain. This seems very merged to me and I wonder why he would raise hands like 99-66, JTs,T9s that could be played profitably IP postflop and so would be a bit more natural for me as a coldcall.
You are right about 3bet range. My analysis was made right after my session, was a bit tired :) All in all, it was a mistake to put him on such narrow ranges. Hi showed K2o :)))
Oh wow. Wanna say, that's the kind of villain for which the note function was invented :)
fold river
Fold turn. You have Kx to call with. Even if you hit A otr you not happy with the hand
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