nl25sh set on bad runout vs smallish bet
Posted by Jeff_
Posted by
Jeff_
posted in
Low Stakes
nl25sh set on bad runout vs smallish bet
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $59.99
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.37
MP: $26.17 (Hero)
CO: $156.26
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.37
MP: $26.17 (Hero)
CO: $156.26
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is MP with
J
J
, , ,
bb nitty reg
utg 24/20 rfi 18-20% | cbet oop 71/62/60 vs 2 56% | wwsf 53 w$sd 65 | aggro otf after bit slow downs
utg 24/20 rfi 18-20% | cbet oop 71/62/60 vs 2 56% | wwsf 53 w$sd 65 | aggro otf after bit slow downs
Flop
($2.35)
J
A
T
, , ,
Turn
($5.55)
J
A
T
2
,
River
($13.95)
J
A
T
2
K
for value villian has KQ 12, AQ 12, Qc9c, Qc8s... probably AA. I will have AQ for sure, and KQs rarely. Can't say what is better to call AK or JJ/TT
Loading 10 Comments...
I think we can over fold here against nitty reg. Quiet easy for you to have any Q, so he shouldnt v-bet OTR thinly.
Versus 18-20 rfi , U can 3b sometimes if U want. Without a special read, I think better to call versus this player, doesn't need to bet to many bluffs or worse combos like this to U can call.
I don't know how large Your sample size, maybe he's on an upswing, he has a somewhat high WWSF and WSD too with his high cbet frequencies.
Readless also better to call against this size I think.
I think that his high WWSF/CB stats are because of how strong/tight his ranges are in the first place.
That said, I would sigh and fold R - I don't see him bluffing here, and he's defenitely not vbetting worse + it's not like this R doesn't hit us.
I think 20 pfr is pretty standard on that limit and not that tight, also ep rfi 18-20% isn't on the too much tighter side. He can bluff with 98cc, 87cc, maybe some 76cc, 65cc, T9cc, K9cc some players mabye bet TT occasionally. I'm also not happy with calling, but with this price can't be too bad.
Well, you said he was nitty, not me! :p
But i still feel like whenever i call in a spot like this, I run into Qx - and yes, I justify calling by thinking he could be bluffing or vbetting worse - too bad that doesn't happen 90%+ of the time for me. ;)
That was Hero say, not me! :D
And He said it from BB not villain. I think maybe Disharmonist is missread the infos too, because He also use the word nitty on villain.
Anyway If U wanna fold, I'm okay with it too. Close spot. :)
Oh shit, yeah, I totally misread that. Sorry! Anyway, yeah, I don't think it's a big deal if we go one way or another and it's more about population tendencies here.
i think this a spot where population tendencies matter a bunch. I do not play these stakes so i am not sure but his sizing on flop and turn are large and AQ doesn't seem likely with that. I would say KQs makes sense all the way thru including sizing down on this river to encourage calls from a wider range from you (if he bets massive he only gets calls from chops). I dont see any bluffs but maybe some spazzes like AK or occasionally i could see him having like 77 or something lol
wp till the river, I'd prob fold if I thought that I have any Qx in my range and occasionally click call if I thought that I'd fold AQ ott and raise KQ earlier on.
I think we can overfold the river vs this guy. It's difficult for him to have enough bluffs here.
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