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nl25: TPTK vs nitty capped range

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

nl25: TPTK vs nitty capped range

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (8 Players) MP+1: $21.13
CO: $44.25
BN: $25.56
SB: $24.45
BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.85
UTG+1: $49.47 (Hero)
MP: $25.35
14/9 2k
3b 3,2
cb 69/48/40
wsd 59
standard nit, who is explo folding many rivers and even on flop and turn I guess
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is UTG+1 with A K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.00, MP folds, MP+1 calls $1.00, 3 folds, BB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.50, MP+1 folds
Do not wanna 4b against 3.5 3betting range.. I think we have right odds to call
Flop ($8.10) 4 4 3
BB bets $2.55, Hero calls $2.55
Possibly could be range betting with AQs or even vs TT-QQ we have odds to call.. plus having some backdoors is also nice.
Turn ($13.20) 4 4 3 A
BB checks, Hero checks
I believe that player like this would be here pretty capped to JJ-KK (maybe even TT) and possibly AA. Do not think that I will get more than 1 street from pocket pairs.. tough to say on which street is he calling more likely.. I would say OTR since now we are floating AK,AQ,AJs OTF and it makes no sense to bet a pocket pair.. however, with 99 or so, I think it might be the best strategy vs this type of opponent.
River ($13.20) 4 4 3 A 8
BB checks, Hero bets $8.32
Now we have to bet.. Didnt want to bet small, bc small bets are generally underbluffed and I would say nit knows that.. So using bigger sizing to attack his capped range.

Would you rather bet the turn? (maybe I am now missing value from AQ)
What sizing would you choose?
Is betting the turn with 88-TT as a bluff a decent option vs nitty guys?

7 Comments

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sjfraley1975 4 years, 9 months ago

On the river here I think you need to bet small enough that Villain can talk themselves into a call with their Queens saying "I have to because pot odds". It has nothing to do with small bets being underbluffed and everything to do with the fact that one of the effects of nits playing so tight is that once they get something good enough to 3-bet, it just feels bad to fold it. The fact that half the Aces are out of the deck makes it less likely that he has one to call you with here, and the way this hand went down you are pretty much turning your hand face up when you bet the river. I get what you are trying to do by making the bet bigger to look more like what someone would bet here bluffing with air or some low PP but I think that repping that will be less effective than making a bet small enough that Villain can give themselves an excuse to see a showdown with their pair.

Eurocrat 4 years, 9 months ago

I agree that the bet on the river seems a bit too big. You are targeting KK-JJ to call you, and judging from your description above, I would assume they fold.

I think the turn check is fine. You will only get one street of value. On this board, there are not many draws villain can have that you would want to charge, and you dont need any protection. KK-JJ will call you or not regardless of the street, and you loose less should he have devided to slowplay his AA.

DNegs98 4 years, 9 months ago

I think you're getting too tricky here, you just have a clear value bet on the turn and a shove on the river. When you x back a hand like this it's because you expect to see very aggressive play from villain on the river in response to your x but that's not likely to be the case so betting the turn is just going to have a much higher EV until you start coming up against some very strong villains.

Don't size the river smaller, if they never call just bluff tons, I honestly going any smaller here is a bit ridiculous and is honestly pretty weak tight.

Also if you think that the mistakes this person makes is that their turn x is super capped and will overfold massively to aggression the way to counter this is go into a solver, start finding some hands to float light that you can comfortably fold to double barrels but you can turn into bluffs on later streets when they take passive action. You can't exploit a player like this if you never show up with a hand to bluff.

MatoStar 4 years, 9 months ago

Do you think we've got more than 1 street of value against this guy? I just feel like betting the turn generates more fold equity than checking and betting the river. I doubt that he would ever call twice with JJ-KK.
We might be concerned about AQs, but given his preflop 3b, it's not that probable and even I would expect either check the flop or bet the turn.. (that's too many options with only 2 possible combos)

DNegs98 4 years, 9 months ago

So your assumption is that this villain never calls river unimproved, can you see how strong an assumption that is to make? If you're wrong you miss loads of value. This is honestly a really common leak I see from low stakes players in several spots where they play their value hands needlessly weirdly because they're afraid of getting folds. If someone folds too much the response is not to start trying to trick them into calling you, it's to bluff them off their hands more. It's just too big an EV mistake to not stack a worse ace here.

You start seeing check backs with strong hands at some frequency when doing so will induce thin value bets with worse hands and bluffs at an increased frequency due to your perceived capped range, when you start modelling for passive play lots of these mixed strategies tend towards a pure bet (because they will put in more money bluff catching than they will value betting/bluffing) which should then induce increased aggression from your villains to exploit you which in turn results in you going back to playing the mixed strategy. If the villains in your games are not capable of recognising this dynamic then x backs with strong hands don't tend to happen.

Also the player you're up against might be position insensitive which is fairly common with weak players who play like this, they have an idea of what a premium hand that should be 3B is and they 3B those hands every time against an open from anywhere so AQs/AQo/AJs could well be within their range.

WillianMates 4 years, 9 months ago

I agree with Dengs. You called pre with AKo, got the best possible board and now are afraid to go for it, in your own analisys he can have AQo so why not put this hand into trouble?

MatoStar 4 years, 9 months ago

Thanks for your comments:)

I think the turn bet makes more sense (just from the logical point of view)

Btw he called with KK

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