nl25 TPTK, can I valueshove river+is my analysis correct?
Posted by Limp Limpson
Posted by Limp Limpson posted in Low Stakes
nl25 TPTK, can I valueshove river+is my analysis correct?
SB: $30.09
BB: $81.77
UTG: $25 (Hero)
HJ: $90.94
CO: $62.82
Hero raises to $0.75, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $0.75, SB folds, BB folds
villain is 23/0 after 23 hands. It's fastforward hand and given how these games play, I'm assuming that he almost never shoves worse if I check to him.
Combos that beat me: 57s (4), 57o (let's say half of them?? I don't know how often does he flat pre, so 6), 44 66 88 JJ (8) and random 8xdd hands....let's say 85dd+, which makes 7 combos. J8 (4) (Total of ~29 combos
Combos that I should get value out of: J9, JT, QJ, KJ (8 combos each, 4*8=32) (this is fairly optimistic) +some unquantifiable equity from the fact, that he dost sometimes ship missed draws+occasional herocalls from 99/TT.
Now, I think that the first range is somewhat pessimistic and the second one is somewhat optimistic....but it looks like marginally ok shove.
Am I wrong? Am I'm approaching the analysis correctly?
Thank you guys
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