nl25 TPTK, can I valueshove river+is my analysis correct?

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

nl25 TPTK, can I valueshove river+is my analysis correct?

BN: $16.93
SB: $30.09
BB: $81.77
UTG: $25 (Hero)
HJ: $90.94
CO: $62.82
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J A
Hero raises to $0.75, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $0.75, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($1.85) 6 4 J (2 Players)
Hero bets $1.32, BN calls $1.32
Turn ($4.49) 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $3.25, BN calls $3.25
River ($10.99) 8 (2 Players)
we've got effective 11.61 behind

villain is 23/0 after 23 hands. It's fastforward hand and given how these games play, I'm assuming that he almost never shoves worse if I check to him. 

Combos that beat me: 57s (4), 57o (let's say half of them?? I don't know how often does he flat pre, so 6), 44 66 88 JJ (8) and random 8xdd hands....let's say 85dd+, which makes 7 combos. J8 (4) (Total of ~29 combos

Combos that I should get value out of: J9, JT, QJ, KJ (8 combos each, 4*8=32) (this is fairly optimistic) +some unquantifiable equity from the fact, that he dost sometimes ship missed draws+occasional herocalls from 99/TT.


Now, I think that the first range is somewhat pessimistic and the second one is somewhat optimistic....but it looks like marginally ok shove. 

Am I wrong? Am I'm approaching the analysis correctly?


Thank you guys


Loading 0 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy