NL25: thin vbet JJ on 666xx vs capped range?

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NL25: thin vbet JJ on 666xx vs capped range?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $25.00 (Hero)
SB: $34.05
BB: $40.72
UTG: $26.61
MP: $17.41
CO: $25.00
UTG 23/21, 80 hands

SB 21/17/3b 5, 200 hands
positional 3bet and sqz have too few samples
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with J J
UTG raises to $0.62, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.62, SB raises to $3.00, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.38
I was wondering if he should have a backraising range here, i.e. what do we do with QQ and AKo?
Flop ($6.87) 6 6 6
SB bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75
Turn ($14.37) 6 6 6 4
SB checks, Hero bets $5.30, SB calls $5.30
River ($24.97) 6 6 6 4 7
SB checks

Not 100% sure about my turn sizing. I bet so small because he looks capped and I wanted to put his A highs into a tough spot. Not sure if he'd ever check QQ+ here. Probably not completely out of the realm of possibilities but for the most part I don't think he does. Is this a valuebet OTR then, especially given my turn sizing? I don't really expect to be beat but in the end felt like he might have QQ+ or a random 6x more often than TT-88.

10 Comments

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PopeShooter 9 years, 3 months ago

Random 6x in his range would be 76s/65s. There's only 2 possible combos of that. And then on top of that, why lead with 4 of a kind in a 3b pot like this? Villain would maybe get pocket pairs to start betting on the flop and also allow hands like AK, AQ, AJs, KQs to hit on turn. And granted the sample size is small, but his 3b is at 5% so I'd discount how often if at all he's 3b 65s and 76s.

I don't think he's taking this line with AA-QQ. You flatted the opener and then flatted the 3b. You don't have AA/KK, and I don't think you have QQ in your range there either. So he bets flop, you call. Let's say villain has QQ and knows that you don't have QQ-AA...do you think villain would slow down his betting on the turn and allow you to maybe hit a A or K on the river to have a better boat?

Because of the reasons above, I'd value bet JJ on the river because I don't think he has any hand left in his range that beats you. Now whether my logic is valid is up for you to decide...

PopeShooter 9 years, 3 months ago

And your range is very pocket pair heavy after flatting UTG open and then villain's 3b. If he has QQ-AA and can eliminate QQ-AA from your range, why would he not continue betting to get value from 88-JJ?

sado44 9 years, 3 months ago

i will check the river always, cant get more value from worse hands actually.

Disharmonist 9 years, 3 months ago

You can exclude QQ-AA in villains range. Why not give villain the chance to herocall you when you have the best hand most tof the time?

aamadeo 9 years, 3 months ago

I agree, if he has a hand like AQ or AK he might call but never bluff with it. If you check is to check-fold. QQ-KK I think he cannot have, but AA is pretty much the nuts, so he might slowplay that, and definitely bet the river.

Pokerlogical 9 years, 3 months ago

U probably can exclude QQ but KK-AA not so much. Some players will occasionally check this turn with AA or KK to protect their marginals. That being said a bet is only thin value vs TT (maybe 99, idk how wide people like to squeeze at that limit).

But we don't know if he is even calling with TT here (he could herofold it, because he could think that you're not bluffing enough OTR). So a River bet is too thin imo.

QQ/AK preflop question: you should actually 3bet QQ/AK as a default vs UTG ip because if he is opening around 17% he has to defend a lot of hands that you dominate and if he 4bets these hands are still strong enough to call. That's why u should be capped if u call the UTG raise.

taaazz 9 years, 3 months ago

R is too thin imo. Most people don't squeeze as wide as 88-TT to go for a tvb. I like your turn sizing, though.

Insilicio 9 years, 3 months ago

''more often than TT-88''

Lets be realistic here. Regulars at 25nl don't squeeze these hands vs UTG. At the bit higher stakes you see it more with hands like TT but I really think you can discount those hands here.

I like your turn sizing. Many hands want some protection so I think this is a nice way to play your range here. Problem is obviously that you are crazy capped since you don't really have 6x in your range or QQ+ and villain has the QQ+ so if he knows what you are doing I think he can put you in really ugly spots by having a turn x/shove range with QQ+ and the according amount of bluffs to make your 99/TT/JJ indifferent to calling.

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