NL25 QJs - 3rd barrel question
Posted by screamdustry
Posted by
screamdustry
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25 QJs - 3rd barrel question
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players)
UTG: $26.90
CO: $2.77
BN: $30.18
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
CO: $2.77
BN: $30.18
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
Villains is 21/16 AFq:36
Cbet OOP: 65/42/48
WTSD 24 W$SD 52 WWSF 42
Cbet OOP: 65/42/48
WTSD 24 W$SD 52 WWSF 42
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
Q
J
, , , , ,
Flop
($2.75)
2
8
T
,
Turn
($5.75)
2
8
T
3
, ,
River
($12.75)
2
8
T
3
2
,
What you guys think about river? After turn action im like always behind with my QJ. But turn/river cards are safe as fuck for his range.
Im not sure but i think i should bet any A/K/Q/J/9/club rivers but its pretty much check give up on other ones.
Im not sure but i think i should bet any A/K/Q/J/9/club rivers but its pretty much check give up on other ones.
Loading 22 Comments...
I like PF/F/T.
River is a wash imo. I mean he doesnt have a tendency to bluffcatch (based on his wtsd) and you have all sets in his range+only 1 obv draw whiffed and you might not have that in your range (and if you do, then you prob have T8 too), so jamming looks sexy, but its not like printing money (we really dont know for sure how does his river arrival range/river calling range look like).
So I think that river is w/e decision either way. If you really forces me, I'd guess that jamming is slightly +ev.
I would bet OTR. We have all sets & T8s and he shouldn't really have clubs. We block some of his folding range but also from his calling range so whatever.
It's obv not an amazing spot to bluff, but I think it's +EV. He's likely capped for the most part, we have all the nut combos in our range + not many draws busted.
not good to barel R , u block handz he could be folding like missed SDs FDs so giveup is goot
I would shut down on this river, we cannot have 22 anymore (just 1 combo), so we can only have T8 (9 combos), 88 (3 combos) and maybe 33 (3 combos but some people will just fold it OTF). So at max we have 15 value combos. If we bluff this river with every missed club combo, considering that we will have basically every AcXc and KcXc hand (except AcKc that we are 3-betting pre), we are probably bluffing too much. Also its a very safe card for villains range, which decreases our fold equity
Okay so you have 7 combos of sets that are going to want jam. You have roughly 18.75 back. He needs 18.75 / (37+12.75) or 37% equity to call the jam. This means we need 7* (1/(1-.37) - 1) = 4.1 combos of bluffs. Assuming we floated all 4 combos of 76s, we should be choosing to jam 76s as a bluff. If we don't have 76s, 97s, J9s in our range, then I'd suggest jamming all combos of QJs
If you don't know this math, I'd suggest you learn it. Its essential to great poker.
or the much easier approach... if ya gonna shove river for pot , just have 1:2 ratio blufz:value , so 3.5:7 -> and if betting more than pot, u can add slightly mb 1 combo more.. and if lesss than pot.. u might remove a combo from blufrange... rite?
Master! :-)
I can't understand the math, maybe I'm wrong.
I think:
18.75+12.75=31.5, so 18.75 / (31.5+12.75) = 42%
Am I wrong?
This means we need 7* (1/(1-.37) - 1) = 4.1 combos of bluffs.
To be honest, I can't understand this well.
Is there any essential video about that?
Usually, my decisions based on thy villain's perceived range. So if I think he is weak, I give more bluffs into my range.
Thank you and best regards: T79
@T79
The math is: his investment / overall pot at showdown
So he needs to call for 18,75 and the pot would be 50$. 18,75/50 = 37%
screamdustry
Oppsss, the 1st bullet is clear, thx
You can do it a little differently, sort of step-by-step calculations - it takes more time, but I guess it might be easier to understand, so let me try to explain the math here:
-we have 7 value combos
-Villain needs 37% equity to call
If V needs 37% to call, it means that he expects 37% of our range to be bluffs, which means that (1-.37)% -> 63% is the amount of our value combos.
If we have 7 value combos, which is 63% of our whole range, it means that we have 7/1-.37 = 11.1 combos total
So, if 7c of our 11.1c range are value hands, it means we should have 11.1-7= 4.1 combos of bluffs, which comes down to what Tyler wrote.
If you want to know where did Tyler's math come from:
B- bluffs
V- value
T-total amount of combos
T=7/1-0.37 - all the combos in our betting range (11.1)
V=7
B=?
B = T-V
B = 7/1-0.37 - 7 or 7*(1/(1-0.37) - 1)
Hope it helps and that I didn't fuck up the math anywhere. :D
taaazz:
Thx for the math.
Anyway, I think I have problem with the thing behind the math. Why would I bluff if I think he has A hand?!
I believe it is a GTO approach, so I must bluff sometimes because he will fold some percent of the times. Really hard to put it together for me. :-/
THX
tesla imo u need to bluffz only so dat he pay off ur nutz, so dat he wont start exploiting ur betting by overfolding hiz blufcatcherz... but i dont think dat will ever happen, so imo u no even needz dem, bluffz..
Gaucan Can you write normally please?
What if we value jam AT and JJ too?
I would jam AT too, makes room for 11,2 bluff combos.
Could you elaborate on why jaming 76s rather than QJs ? Is it just because we don't block JT/QT which he may fold when we jam when holding 76s ?
I'd say so - him having JT/QT blocks some draws in our range, which might make him less inclined to bluffcatch the R.
When you try to pick the right amount of bluffs the simplest way to do it is by choosing the hands that are closer to your bottom range. Otherwise it could be hard to control your bluffing frequency.
Good point sir, must be it.
really high level thinking
I doubt villain folds enough of his range to make the river a good shove.
Your range for ramming the river is basically boats and bluffs - assuming you 3bet your strong pp's preflop. - that's a very narrow value range and I don't think you should have too many bluffs yourself in this spot. His range for getting to this river is pretty strong. You block AcQc, and AcJc. So the only hands he folds to a shove are AcKc and maybe 99 or some weak Tx. He can still have all overpairs, boats, quads and I don't see what else really. I just nit it back.
How often does someone bet flop and then check to call with sets and overpairs? When BB calls, he tries to rep SDV, so it would only make sense for SB to bet all his value combos instead of letting it get checked through.
Be the first to add a comment