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nl25 nfd facing raise oop

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nl25 nfd facing raise oop

BN: $14.57
SB: $8.50
BB: $27.29
UTG: $12.42
HJ: $25 (Hero)
CO: $25.37
27/18 930 hands
call open CO 22
raise cbet 7
wwsf 44
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A J
Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BN folds, SB folds, UTG folds
Flop ($1.85) 6 5 2 (3 Players)
Hero bets $1.25, CO raises to $3.75, Hero calls $2.50
Turn ($9.35) 6 5 2 J (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50
River ($20.35) 6 5 2 J J (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10.25

is it correct to fold otr? i dont think he would raise flop with draws beacuse of the r cbet stat and he is ip.

so his range is all sets two pairs (which will not bet the rvr i guess ) and stuff like 77+ which i dont think he will turn into a bluff on the rvr.

am i right?

5 Comments

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Daz 11 years, 2 months ago

If you confident you can be that precise with his in position flop raising range then yes its a fold. In practice i don't see anyone folding here for a 1/2 pot river bet.

i was in a similar spot and grumble/called with KsQs on Ts7s4 K K and was shown a set and the only thing that made me call was the bet was so small relative to the pot. I felt he had a set OTF. 

Roman 11 years, 2 months ago

raise cbet 7
wwsf 44 

this is super tight.

and he will not raise here stuff like 77+ (77-TT) coz its very thin value here, and man with stats like this will not raise for thin value.

so i can put him range like JJ-QQ (and mb smths some better premium pairs, coz at sb and btn looks like sitting fishes and he can decide dont 3b, and try to catch them into pot too), sets ofc, and 65.

and against his range (if we imlyed that he can call pre premium) you can call coz you need atleast 26% EQ, and has 36%. but trouble is that you oop and opp is very hard to extract value when your flash will come.

and your turn already is -EV call, coz at turn you had 25% EQ vs 27% potodds. Yes you think you can call by implyed odds, but i think every catch like A or flush card will be SUPER obviously and you can not extract value especially oop, so at turn here no +EV call (J isnt you out anyway in this spot at flop).

And you cant call river, coz here will be bet only FH and some premium that we can think he will smthms call pre. But i think he will not bet river w QQ (and if yes - its will not be +EV, just breakeven 9 combs OP vs 9 combs FH, and remember rake - and its go not to +EV), so here no call river.


Daz 11 years, 2 months ago

In fact your turn-to-river pot odds may be closer to 28%-14%. The fact that you OOP is very relevant as Roman mentioned however the OP combos of QQ are 6 vs 9 FH combos which would still make it a CALL OTR as we getting 3 to 1. 

ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 2 months ago

I dont think it matters that much, if you are that sure he never gets out of line, then sure go ahead and fold. Either way I think the river is marginal enough I wouldnt worry about it. If you are that positive hes just got a set, the turn is pretty close, but im guessing hes not gunna fold his set if we hit our flush and lead out for half pot, so even then calling is at worst prolly neutral EV

james 11 years, 2 months ago

I think I call here. It sucks that we block his NFD combos but if the weakest bluff catcher we call with is trips top kicker on a board where every straight and flush draw missed I can't imagine it can be that bad. Also, he's playing 27-18 so I'm going to give him some chance of showing up with something completely random.

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