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[nl25] KQ Squeezed Pot, Turn Decision?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

[nl25] KQ Squeezed Pot, Turn Decision?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) UTG: $26.70
MP: $26.29
CO: $14.14
BN: $34.80
SB: $25.85 (Hero)
BB: $94.70
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with K Q
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, BN calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.00, BB folds, CO folds, BN calls $2.25
Villan is 27/19 AF1,9. 3bet 6% BTNvsCO. Fold to 3bet 50%. BTN VPIP 32%. 441 hands.

So he calls with all broadways, 55-99. A2s+. We can subtract JJ+ AQ+ from his range. 196 combos.
Flop ($7.00) T 5 2
Hero bets $3.40, BN calls $3.40
His flop calling range should be TT-55, JTs, KcQc, AhJh, AcJc, KhJh, KcJc, QcJc, AdTd, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, KcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ah5h, Ac5c, Ah4h, Ac4c, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ah2h, Ac2c, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo.
112 combos.
Turn ($13.80) T 5 2 J
Hero checks, BN checks
He will probably call, maybe raise some of these combos on turn or even flop: TT, 55, JTs, KcQc, AhJh, AcJc, KhJh, KcJc, QcJc, AdTd, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, KcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ah5h, Ac5c, Ah4h, Ac4c, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ah2h, Ac2c, ATo, KTo, JTo.
76 combos

Not sure if he calls ATo, KTo on the turn. Probably not. So 52 combos continues to the river.

There are only 3x A and 3x 9 to the nuts.

So just barrel heart turn cards and check call this time?

112 - 52 = 60
We can fold 60 combos by betting turn, but 52 still calls.
River ($13.80) T 5 2 J 6
Hero checks, BN checks
If we triple barrel on non club, non 9, non A rivers. He will call with 3x 55, 3x TT, 14x JT, maybe 2x AJ = 22 combos and probably fold the rest.
When we hit the river 13% of the time, he probably still calls the river with his sets, maybe some of the two pair hands.

But its really hard to see which line is most profitable and there can be so many mistakes in my assumptions.
It looks like its a must to invest in that CREV software.
Final Pot BN wins and shows a pair of Eights.
SB lost and shows high card King.
BN wins $13.18
Rake is $0.62

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