NL25 is there value OOR?
Posted by deyverpoker
Posted by
deyverpoker
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25 is there value OOR?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
UTG: $46.02
MP: $27.25
CO: $28.42 (Hero)
BN: $21.01
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.35
MP: $27.25
CO: $28.42 (Hero)
BN: $21.01
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.35
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is CO with
K
Q
, , , ,
Flop
($4.85)
8
T
J
, ,
Turn
($11.25)
8
T
J
K
,
River
($11.25)
8
T
J
K
8
,
Final Pot
MP
lost and shows two pair, Jacks and Eights.
CO wins and shows two pair, Kings and Eights.
CO wins $10.74
Rake is $0.51
CO wins and shows two pair, Kings and Eights.
CO wins $10.74
Rake is $0.51
i dont know what worst hands call here. what do you say?
Loading 14 Comments...
Yes.
You should leave the results hidden so people don't give biased results orientated answers and feedback.
I think you played this hand great except river, I would go for around 50-60% value bet to get value from Jx and maybe QQ. You might be able to go for 70% but I'm not sure.
You can bluff hands like QTs A9s T9 67s etc.
Fold pre. As played, bet the turn and XB river.
As played, bet the R - I expect most of his strong hands just to lead out, because you're more likely to call a bet than to (thin) vbet yourself.
i ususally fold pre this hand. however in this spot yhe villan had a large percent of ft3bet. thanks for answering
I would bet river as played as well. Just a half pot is fine. NH.
Preflop seems close vs unknown, might consider 3betting if there's regulars behind.
Without reads i would prob bet turn then most likely check river. As played you have to bet river imo
love your avatar
3b pre is fine.
On this board I dont expect we have any feq.
I assume he's calling range is like ~4,5%: 77-JJ. AQ, lets say 50% combo of AK, AJs and QQ.
so for me it's:
-xb flop (no equity, no feq)
-bet turn
-bet river
As played on the flop, xb turn and bet river seems to be fine for me.
Pre I think it would depend greatly on villain's tendencies. If he doesn't have a high fold to 3bet nor a high flop fold to cbet, and plays good postflop, I'd rather fold. If he's a fish, 3bet 100%.
I think your flop bet it's kind of dicey, he has more sets there than you, so if you're gonna bet I think it should be smaller, like half pot.
Turn is fine IMO
I'm not sure there's value OTR.
His range has :
FullHouse TT,JJ = 6c
Trips 98s, 87s = 4c
Straight AQ = 8c
Total = 18c
Let's say he checks at some freq, like 33%, so he has 6c
KJs = 2c
TPTK AK = 8c
QQ = 3c
AJs = 3c
So you beat 6c of 22c, you have something like 27% eq OTR, you can't value bet.
Let's say he never has better than TPTK, you still have 6/14 < 50% eq you can't value bet.
thnaks a lot. i really learn so much since i posted hands.
With some additional stats/info we can definitely narrow this down.
For instance, many people would only defend AQs and would not defend 98s/87s. Also many people would 4-bet AK a decent percentage as well and also there is only 1 combo of KJs.
Under these assumptions and that he 4bets AK let's say half the time I'd further reduce the range (optomistically) down to
JJ/TT (6)
AQs (4)
Assumes he checks 1/3 of time = 3.5ish combos.
KJs (1)
AK (4)
AJs (3)
QQ (3)
Under the additional assumption he calls w/ all these then we are ahead of 7 combos out of a total of 3.5+1+4+3+3 = 14.5 = 7/14.5
So even under pretty optomistic conditions you would remain correct and it is indeed a check. I'd really doubt villain would hero with hands like T9s/ATs etc. if he even has them. So yeah, nice analysis @aamadeo
This is a nice analysis however I would assume villain x/r flop with TT JJ a good percentage of the time so maybe we can take that out of his range. And I think once we check turn I expect him to lead out with a lot of his value fearing we will check back hands like Jx and QQ etc. So I just expect to have the best hand here a lot and I think he has enough Jx and some QQ we can go for value.
However when I think about this this would be indeed a thin value bet but I still think it's better then checking.
Pretty nice analysis, but imo you made a mistake OTR.
I think he has never better than KQ or 2nd pair.
Imo he always vbets TPTK trying to get value from QQ or weaker Kx.
AK is best hand OTR so I dont see any reason why villain checks it.
At higher limits or a read that Villain can balance his ranges well I would lean towards a check. But at 25NL you won't see that very often. So when Hero checks back turn and river is somewhat of a blank (8x improves but I don't know if hero chooses to cbet 8x) Villain has incentive to bet with all his value hands (TPTK+) and bluff catch/get to showdown with everything weaker. Also, at 25NL you will get looked up lighter because the monetary value of the money is very low and curiosity of villains are very high. So Hero can get looked up by weaker Kx (If any), QQ, Jx, and some Tx. No this isn't good in theory but taking the meta-game into consideration I think it is +ev.
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