NL25 how would you play it?
Posted by PhilG86
Posted by
PhilG86
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25 how would you play it?
CO: $47.84 (Hero)
BN: $24.75
SB: $11.60
BB: $3.77
HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.62, BN calls $0.62, SB folds, BB folds
Very few hands with villain but currently 40/13 and has 4bet 88 pre.
Flop play definitely a bit unorthodox for me. I figured it was a flop that I wouldn't normally c-bet so I checked it but then realised I didn't want to give any free cards so raised after he bet. I think it turns my hand a bit face up. Looking back I think I prefer betting it. Any advice on these types of flops, what hands to bet and what to check etc. most welcome.
When he calls I figure TJ,QJ,KJ,AJ maybe some of the weaker flush and straight draws. I think sets, straights and combo draws would re-raise given the wet board. Turn looks good for me, not sure why my bet has come out so small as I had meant to make it a bit over half pot.
Villain calls again so I'mm thinking he has a Jack now or possibly getting very sticky with a draw which I don't mind obviously.
A on the river felt really gross to me, I figured his most likely J hands are JT or AJ which both have me beaten now, draws aren't calling. I could get some value from KQ if he had chosen to slowplay it but I didn't figure it to be a big part of his range. I felt checking was the best option.
He only bets $8 thankfully and I snap it off, I don't think I can fold for that price.
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I don't mind the x/r on the flop, because against a lot of players I would be x/cing Jx and overpairs a lot on this flop for pot control. I think your sizing is bad though. Given the board texture, and subsequent runout, you should be raising larger on the flop, bet larger on the turn, and shove the river.
On the flop I guess it depends of the AF of villian, if its really high x/r larger as SCS said, if he hasnt AF really high. Pot bet on flop and if raised reraise with intention to go all in, if only called, turn 2/3 reaching commitment (if raised raise all in, if called all in on the river).
And if you say you have not many hands on villain I'd follow the Pot Bet, 2/3, All in line (Actually his stats of 40/13 is enough info for following this line he's having a lot of draws on this flop).
I actually like your river Check back with such strong hand as 99 full-house. Would be more inclined to C/R Jam, and hope Villain has JX
Everyone seems quite keen to get all the money here on the river. My worry is that we have the weakest full house and have taken a fairly strong line on the flop and turn. If I was in Villain's spot I think I'd check behind with trips. I really don't expect to see any Jx that I beat when I call the river
Bet/call is also optimal based on how you wouldve played 99 Full-house up to river, if your facing a Competent opponent, since your only repping 2-pair+ on the river by Taking
C/R, Bet/Bet/ line
But i also think Check-raising is also a fine line you could take sometimes for balance purposes.
But i think Check/Calling, your still missing value from a part of VIllains overall hand range thats Value betting river.
@PhilG86: Why do you think this: "I figured his most likely J hands are JT or AJ which both have me beaten now"
these are his least likely hands combo-wise - not to mention JT would re-raise some percent of the time on the flop (possibly small but > 0).
when you play vs fish like this you have to only be thinking of how to get value and not worry about a few hands that beat you...save that thinking for the regs. if you have a boat just keep shoveling money in as fast as possible. If you lose money to a fish, in a very unlucky spot, so what? it's going to come right back to you.
It's not inconceivable that he calls you with just an Ace on the river (Axcc or AT, AQ, A8?). Maybe he has the bottom straight and was scared to get it in on the flop? he's not folding if you bomb it. he could also have KQcc and slowplaying and now you let him get away with only betting $8. (also Jacks call obv)
I am fine with your flop c/r (yeah you should prob size it a touch higher with this board because you give him such good odds to bink anything and you're now going to be OOP and he can turn hands into bluffs, etc).. But your turn bet needs to be huge. At that point if he has a Jack or huge draw, he's not folding. Just bomb it.
Then you said "He only bets $8 thankfully and I snap it off, I don't think I can fold for that price." I think it's possible you are being a little over-paranoid and possibly have a worst case scenario mentality. I used to be like that too...sometimes I still am but you have to force yourself past that. That's just my impression from your tone...might be wrong so sorry if I am.
I just figured based on the strength I showed on the flop and turn he will often show up with a J, most of which beat us because he probably isn't flatting J8 or worse. Straights are a possibility, they aren't folding, although on such a draw heavy board with a lot of scare cards I'd try to get the money in on the flop. I think he'd have to put me on a stone bluff to call with 2 pair or a bare Ace if I bombed the river. Busted flush draws possibly but they aren't calling whether I bomb the river or c/r the river.
I know fish can play it strange sometimes but I have no reads on this guy. Winning money at these stakes doesn't worry me I'm just trying to develop my hand reading skills and make good decisions. I wasn't sure whether my thinking made sense or not.
FWIW and not being results orientated villain had AJ.
I think J8s and J7s are certainly in the flatting range on the button of a guy playing 40% of his hands, and calling most of them. You still keep saying most Jacks beat you. Let's say he only has J8s, J9s, JTs, JTo, QJo, QJs, KJo, KJs, AJo, AJs. write out all of these combos possible by the river and you'll see there are more Jacks that you beat.
anyway even giving him AJ, the biggest thing you should take away is you need to bet the turn a lot bigger because he is calling all of his Jacks, straights, and monster draws (and prob raise a little bigger on the flop). and once he calls the turn, it's basically impossible to read if he has KJ or AJ. I think you need to bomb the river again to get calls from worse hands than yours because there are plenty of them.
40% is only over a small sample as I said, I wouldn't take much notice of that but he might call J8s
I accept I'm ahead of a range like that I just don't think that all hands with trips are going to call a river shove when I could easily have a straight or full house given the way I've played the hand. I also think they'd check back the river. I know a lot of crazy things happen in the micros but it just didn't feel right in this spot, maybe just call it a soul read and on to the next hand!
AJ is such a small proportion of his overall continuance range, that we shouldnt be results oriented on river situation.
I kind of dislike the turn sizing, i`d make it at least 5.75 to set up river jam.
He`s never folding Jx and a str8, so just go for value.
I`d also bet $12 on the river, but your line is interesting allthough i don`t like the sizing.
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