NL25 getting c/r on the river with bluffcatcher

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NL25 getting c/r on the river with bluffcatcher

BN: $37.76
SB: $164.21
BB: $25
UTG: $25
HJ: $25
CO: $26.72 (Hero)
Villain is playing 16/15 on 67 with 5% 3bet and wtsd 0 he folds the bb to steal 80% of the time.
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 7 8
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.50
Flop ($1.60) 5 8 J (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1
Turn ($3.60) 5 8 J 3 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River ($3.60) 5 8 J 3 K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises to $8, Hero folds
Final Pot
BB wins $7.74
I decided to turn my hand into a bluff on this river.
I don't know why and if he would check a set twice to c/r this river, but if he would lets say c/r a range of 33, 55, 88, KJs, T9s we would win 30,77% against that range and need only 29% to breakeven.
My question now: What do you think his range here is?

6 Comments

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friedpie 12 years, 1 month ago
It really looks like KJ here, maybe a set that expected you to bet the K but that's assuming a bit too much.
I am checking back river as he is probably never folding a J and I doubt we get any value from his 66/77 type hands.
Without any more info on him I think our hand is way too weak to bluff catch here with and I'd wait till you have more hands / reads on him to get a better idea on how is he playing.
WM2K 12 years, 1 month ago
Open fold preflop. For this hand to be a open in the CO the btn needs to be the nittiest nit of all nits and even then I m sure its close.

As played ya flop bet is good and I would nt fire turn. I don t get why you turn your hand into a bluff OTR. I doubt you get a J to fold here and you run some small chance that you get bluff raised. You have enough showdown value.

Egor Ovchinnikov 12 years, 1 month ago
Turn is blank...Why you check?Are you doin check,if you had J?!!I think you must bettin on turn...not much...not lil bet...BUT Bet!On river he probably catch K...But maybe he had slowplayin set...Here you must look on his AGF%...
So...Turn is BAD...you'll be lose much money,on that boards in future,if you will be play like here...On turn his reaction on your bet give you information,and that saved your money on river.
maco 12 years, 1 month ago
If you bet the turn you're turning your hand in to a bluff because I don't see him calling with 77/66 or worse 8x and you are tring to fold 99/TT and ur only geting value from T9,if you're beting the turn,on that river you have to bet 100%.You wanna be polarised on turn,but I don't think that is necesary,but if we wanna be polarised I would bet bigger because that's how we'll bet turn there with a J.
James Hudson 12 years, 1 month ago
I'd just check back the river. Assuming that he doesn't fold a Jx hand you're basically only trying to get him off of 99 and 1010 and 1010 is going to 3 bet some % of the time.

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