NL25 [FR] Betting for small value OTR vs aggro

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NL25 [FR] Betting for small value OTR vs aggro

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (9 Players) SB: $25.00
BB: $28.01
UTG: $43.74 (Hero)
UTG+1: $25.37
MP: $27.70
MP+1: $26.37
MP+2: $26.22
CO: $25.00
BN: $31.45
Stats of BB:
VPIP/PFR: 32/5
3bet: 1.9
Fold to CB: 50 (16 hands)
AF F/T/R: 1/1/6
Hands: 139

I should also mention I heroed him a couple of hands ago by calling a big bluff on the river with K high. (It's not something i usually do, but this bluff just seemed too obvious and K high would be enough.) How will this effect a new big bet from him on the river?
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, CO calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50
Flop ($2.35) A 8 T
BB checks, Hero bets $2.15, CO folds, BB calls $2.15
Turn ($6.65) A 8 T 9
BB checks, Hero bets $6.09, BB calls $6.09
River ($18.83) A 8 T 9 K
BB checks, Hero bets $6.75, BB raises to $19.02 and is all in, Hero folds
I can't really think of an air hand he will be bluffing with. It has to be some kind of KQ/KJ/JT/J9 hand he's turning into a bluff if he's bluffing. So despite his high river AF I think I should fold? What about my bet OTR? Is it ok to bet to get value out of smaller aces and maybe KQ/KJ against a villain that is that aggro OTR?
Final Pot BB wins $30.88
Rake is $1.45

8 Comments

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Riqu93 9 years, 6 months ago

why do you nearly pot all streets? i would bet big smaller on all streets.

river i would x/b, i dont see how hes calling with a worse hand here. Even AJ is folding

as played. easy fold

Joran Böhmer 9 years, 6 months ago

Fish almost call as much to a big bet as to a smaller one, right? So I think there is a lot of value in potting the flop and turn, because I don't think he can lay down big draws there and will just call with them.

How are you so sure a fish will fold his AJ OTR or before? I've seen so many guys with these kind of stats call with a lot less. After his river raise a fold looks easy yeah.

Disharmonist 9 years, 6 months ago

Not true. You assume even worse player never get a hand. Do you really expect someone to call down with a T here all the way or ax? Anyways, if you think he calls twice with big draws, and the draw comes in, why do you bet?

Disharmonist 9 years, 6 months ago

If your v-bets only targert a low number of hands taht you beat (AJ) but most other hands are bettter, you basically bluff with a hand that is sometimes best.

Joran Böhmer 9 years, 6 months ago

I apparently have no feeling of how fish think. Then I'll bet like 75%/50%/33% next time with strong pairs given that no draws complete. Would that be fine?

DoUtDes 9 years, 6 months ago

I think your sizes flop and especially turn are fine vs this guy on such a coordinated texture...plan is to get maximum value ott because on vast majority of rivers you'll have to check back...like this one, seems a super std check back

Joran Böhmer 9 years, 6 months ago

Finally someone who agrees with me otf/ott :) It does make a lot more sense to me since I think he'll call with a lot lesser hands on such a coordinated board. I agree with you guys I had to check back the river. I think this can be a serious flaw in my game since I try to get small value otr a lot, I'll focus more on that.

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